With all of the morning computer model runs now out of the way, we wanted to bring you up to speed on our thoughts. All of the morning computer models have a significant snowstorm for the Hudson Valley. While there are a few minor issues… the major details are coming to light. Please scroll down for the Preliminary Storm Forecast, or feel free to check the Tuesday Outlook.
The morning NAM, GFS and European models all have the same solution, with minor differences. Each of the models track a strengthening storm up the east coast. Here are some images of the morning GFS model, demonstrating the general idea and track of the storm.
By sunset on Wednesday, the worst of the storm is beginning to exit the area, but the exact time it ends is still a bit uncertain, hence the large window of 6pm to 11pm. Otherwise, for snowfall amounts and other details… please read below:
Preliminary Storm Forecast (updated Tue @ 3pm)
- A mixture of rain and wet snow begins between 5am and 9am on Wednesday in the valley, from south to north, before quickly changing to all snow. Higher elevations should start out as all snow.
- Snow falls moderate to heavy at times from 10am to 6pm. Snowfall rates during this time could range from 1 to 2 inches per hour.
- Snow begins to taper off to snow showers between 6pm and 11pm from west to east.
- Zone 1: 3 to 6 inches of snow (higher end south and east)
- Zones 2, 3 & 4 (north of dashed line): 5 to 8 inches (locally higher amounts especially in zone 4)
- Zones 2, 3 & 4 (south of dashed line): 6 to 12 inches (locally higher amounts in SE Catskills, Gunks & Taconics)
- Zones 5, 6 & 7: 6 to 12 inches (locally higher amounts in SE Catskills, Gunks & Taconics)
- Zone 8: 5 to 10 inches (locally higher in the NW hills) some mixing possible.
- Zone 9: 2 to 6 inches, a fair amount of mixing likely
- Note: between the bold dashed lines are areas most likely to see heaviest snow
And for those of you who wish to see the same snowfall forecast presented in the more traditional ‘old school’ format: