Perhaps it’s the late hour, but I feel like if the Weather Channel can name storms, then where’s the harm in taking the Superbowl and Groundhog’s Day, and calling this storm “Super-Hog”?
The afternoon runs of the computer models on Saturday suggested the storm might take a slightly further north track.
The major question with this storm, is the track uncertainty. The further north the storm tracks, the further north the sleet and freezing rain get… and that could limit snowfall accumulation. Either way, this is a major winter storm… it’s just a question of what type of precipitation you will see: Snow… or Snow, sleet and freezing rain?
Saturday afternoon the models took the storm on a further north track, which would push considerable sleet and freezing rain into the southern 3rd of the Hudson Valley:
With a slightly further north track, the model projected that anyone near or south of I-84 would see a changeover to sleet and freezing rain for a period. The only change in impact under this scenario… would be a bit less snow. But what was lost in snow accumulation… would be replaced by ice accumulation. Some people love snow… some hate it… but everybody hates ice. So our concern Saturday afternoon… was that this storm might track slightly further north, and we could have a period of freezing rain and sleet.
That concern is still a possibility… but the Saturday night run of both the GFS and NAM computer model shifted back south slightly…
With a track that is slightly further south… the Hudson Valley would remain mainly snow (maybe a brief period of sleet in Rockland and Westchester). This would maximize our snowfall potential, likely meeting or exceeding the preliminary snowfall forecast of 10 to 15 inches.
The evening computer model runs didn’t tell us anything other than the situation is going to be a very close call… between all snow, and a snowstorm that sees a mix of sleet and freezing rain. If we do mix with sleet and freezing rain… for how long? The longer the mix… the lower the snowfall amounts, and the higher the chance for significant icing.
We’ll have updates on the Facebook page thru the day on Sunday… as well as the finalized forecast here on the website. Have a great Superbowl Sunday!… and don’t forget to check back for updates on the storm.