The snow has begun falling across the Hudson Valley as of late Sunday night, as the winter storm we have affectionately begun calling, “Super-Hog” has begun to impact the region. We’ll continue to see the snow fall thru the overnight hours… and into Monday morning. Here are some simulated radar images showing how this storm is expected to progress.
By around the 8am hour… the snow is projected to falling moderate to heavy from I-84 on north. Snowfall rates of over 1″ per hour are possible at times… and with temperatures in the low to mid 20s, the snow should be a fluffy powder.
However… from I-84 on south… there could be considerable mixing with sleet. Once you get into Rockland, Putnam and Westchester counties, there could be an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. The real concern, is for areas that see prolonged freezing rain. We’ll have to watch closely Monday morning, and see if freezing rain becomes a significant problem for some areas.
By the noon hour… we’re going to begin seeing the back edge of the precipitation approaching the Hudson Valley. You’ll notice that the snow/ice line hasn’t progressed any further north during the morning. The HRRR computer model shown, (as well as the NAM and GFS models), project the snow/ice line to only reach near I-84. That doesn’t mean it will play out exactly as depicted… but rather that this is the most likely extent. We’ll have to see how it unfolds.
If we assume that the data is correct, and the storm plays out as depicted… below is the snowfall projection by the mid day hour on Monday:
The exact location of the snow/ice line… as well as the duration and extent of the heaviest moisture… will determine who the big winners are in terms of snow accumulations, however this computer model image helps increase confidence in the forecast.
The Final Storm Forecast has the breakdown by zone, with the localized details. However in general, anywhere from 8 to 16 inches are expected… with up to 18 inches possible in the Catskills. Where there is a period of sleet and freezing rain, south of I-84 (especially in Rockland and Westchester counties), lower totals are expected… thanks to reduced snowfall, and increased icing.
We’ll continue to track this storm as it unfolds Monday morning, here and on Facebook. If you can stay off the roads today, please do. However, if you must travel on Monday, please use extreme caution.