Worst part of the storm will be through the evening into the overnight:
Few things to keep an eye on:
We are now entering the worst part of the storm: Heavy snow will fall across the region through the remainder of the evening and through the overnight. Roads will become impassable. Visibility near zero at times, and dangerous wind chills, will combine to make for a very dangerous storm. Try not to get as caught up in the accumulations as the combination of all of the elements this storm is bringing to the table. Heavy snow, near zero visibilities, dangerously cold temps, and deadly wind-chills, these are not the kind of conditions you want to risk being exposed to on a highway or side road. Single digit temperatures and heavy snow is a rarity in this region, and a combination that not many winter storms bring to the table. At this hour the storm has performed exactly to our forecast and we will continue to monitor the trends throughout the overnight and make adjustments as needed.One thing to watch that could potentially put a damper on the forecast is the back edge of the precipitation and dry air eroding the precipitaion shield. Technically, as the coastal low takes over and bombs out, this shield should expand a bit and the easterly progress of the back edge should slow. Never the less I have seen forecasts burned by these scenarios before, and with the storm tracking so far offshore, it is a possibility. This is why we nowcast, you must examine the trends as they occur, so you can adjust the forecast as needed, so let me be the first to highlight that concern.
•Few items that bear watching, which can impact the forecast.
•Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the entire region.
•Worst part of the storm is now through the overnight.
•Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible tonight.
•Interstate 87 South of Albany and Interstate 84 will close at midnight, and may reopen at 5am after conditions are revisited.
•Statewide state of emergency has been issued by Governor Andrew Cuomo.
•Dangerous temperatures overnight with lows in the single digits, and wind-chills 15-20 below zero; if venturing outdoors use caution.
•Increasingly gusty winds out of the North will create blowing and drifting snow with visibilities near zero.
•Blowing snow combined with heavy snowfall rates and temperatures below the effective rating for road treatments will lead to treacherous to impossible travel overnight.
•Snowfall accumulations 0f 6-12 inches, whether we see the high end or low end depends on a few factors,see bottom of update.
•Travel is not recommended, if it is a neccesity then travel with a supply kit that prepares you for these conditions.
•Snow should taper off between 5am-9am from West to East, very cold temps tomorrow may extend treacherous travel beyond the ending of the precipitation.
Please continue to post observations and confirmed information on the website, do not forget your location when posting observations. A few things to keep an eye on tonight that will determine if we see the high end or low end of the snowfall totals from this storm. Keep an eye on the back edge of the snow as is slowly pushes east, if it crashes east to quickly it will subsequently taper the snow off earlier and lead to lower totals. Also keep an eye on where the banding sets up on the radar, these bands will become more evident tonight as the Nor Easter begins to deepen, and throw more convection back on shore. These two elements will hold a very large key to just how much snow we wake up to tomorrow morning, and these are features that can only be nowcasted. Stay tuned to the website and of Facebook and Twitter for updates throughout the storm.
Image below is the current radar, I have circled the back edge of the precipitation, its progress certainly bears watching, if the forecasts are going to go to plan we will need to see this are begin to fill back in, and it’s easterly progress cease once the coastal storm takes over.