Wednesday: Cloudy and warm, with patchy drizzle and an increasing chance of scattered late day showers. High in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday Night: Cloudy and warm with scattered showers, becoming areas of steady rain with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Low in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday: Rain… possibly heavy at times, tapering off to scattered showers by mid day. High in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 80%.
A very warm day across the Hudson Valley on Tuesday, despite the general cloudiness. The average high for the day is 64°, and the average low is 39°. Poughkeepsie hit a high temperature of 78°, and a low of 59°. All together, Tuesday was 17 degrees above average… making it feel more like early September than mid October.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another very warm day, with temperatures a good 15 degrees above average. We’ll see mostly cloudy skies, but a southerly breeze will continue to pump warm air into the Hudson Valley. A few areas of fog and drizzle are possible, but much of the day should be mostly dry… at least until late afternoon.
This map represents 8pm Wednesday, and you can see that the rain showers are just beginning to press into the Hudson Valley (circled). The low pressure system and associated cold front will stall out, and remain off to our west until Thursday morning. This will allow for an extended period of showers and steady rain… even an embedded thunderstorm… straight thru Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. The steady rain should begin to pull out of the region by Thursday late morning / early afternoon. So expect a wet Wednesday overnight… a rainy Thursday AM commute, before the rain showers taper off around mid day.
By the time all is said and done, a widespread 0.75″ to 1.50″ of rainfall appears possible, with locally higher totals possible. The map above is the GFS projection… but the European and NAM models offer similar ideas. The wildcard with this storm, is that there will be a few bands of heavy rain that will impact localized areas for an extended period of time… and exactly where those long lasting, heavy bands of rain set up… is impossible to predict. This GFS model image, has them east of the Hudson River and into Connecticut, but where ever it occurs, over 2 inches of much needed rainfall will be possible. But on the average… some long overdue, much needed rainfall around an inch appears likely.
Looking ahead, Friday and Saturday look nice… but a cold front could push thru Saturday night, and leave us with unseasonably cold air for the second half of the weekend. But that’s well down the road, and we’ll take a closer look at that once we get thru this storm.
So we’ll have some storm updates as we go through Wednesday night as necessary on the Facebook page, but we’ll also take another look at things in the Wednesday evening update. I’m going to pass on much of my rambling tonight. After a long weekend, the 1st day back at work always makes for a long day, so I’m going to use this chance to catch up on some sleep. Alex and I thank you for all your support, and for making HVW your trusted weather source. We hope you can get out and enjoy another very mild day on Wednesday, in spite of the clouds. It’s not too often that you get temps in the mid 70s on October 15th… you’ve gotta enjoy those days any way you can. Have a great Wednesday!