Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies with a few scattered showers possible. High in the mid 60s, then falling during the afternoon. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday Night: Clearing skies and chilly. Low in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday: Sunshine mixing with clouds, breezy and chilly. High in the mid 50s.
What a beautiful day across the Hudson Valley on Tuesday, as sunshine mixed with clouds, and afternoon highs reached into the low 70s for most of the area. Poughkeepsie reached 73°… in what might have been the nicest day we’ll see until next spring. However… we’ll keep our fingers crossed that we get a mini November heat wave.
Wednesday starts out warm, and ends a bit chilly. Clouds will rule the skies, and we’ll have a few scattered showers around the valley. The timing on the scattered showers appears to be 9am to 3pm, and they’ll be fairly light and spotty… not a washout by any stretch. The front pushes through around mid day, and so the temperatures could be on the decline after lunch as the wind shifts around to the northwest. Thursday looks decent but chilly, as temps won’t get past the mid 50s… and the same looks to be true for Friday.
Storm Potential – Update
After another day of data, the weekend picture appears no clearer. If anything, the picture is more cloudy. The reason is that the computer models are really struggling with an upper level low pressure feature, and just how far south it digs before linking up with a surface low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. Both the European model and the GFS model have been shifting around all day. Below is the GFS model from Tuesday afternoon, with it’s projection for Saturday afternoon:
You can see that there are 2 areas of low pressure over the Atlantic, indicating a lot of disorganization with this system. This could be a product of the computer model not properly handling the energy. But one thing to notice, is how far south the area of low pressure just off the coast of North Carolina is. This is a huge difference from what we were seeing 24 hours ago, when the system was south of Rhode Island. The big thing to take away, is that there is a lot of atmospheric energy involved, and things could change considerably in the next day or two.
For now… our idea remains the same. A strong cold front will deliver much colder air to the Hudson Valley for this weekend. We’ll likely see scattered rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning in the valley, possibly mixing with wet snow flakes at the end. In the Catskills and Taconics, we could see a period of wet snow with some slushy accumulation. We’ll continue to track this each day… and if something major changes, a special update could be posted.
So… having just watched World Series Game 6, I’m very excited that I’ll have 1 more baseball game to watch this year… as KC forced a game 7. Through my childhood, when I wasn’t observing or forecasting the weather… I was playing baseball. Baseball was a massive part of my life from age 5 to 18… so if I can see one more game before the snow flakes fall this winter, I’ll take it. But looking at the clock, I see its almost midnight, so time to call it a night. Have a great day on Wednesday, Hudson Valley!