In a change of pace… how about a mid day update on the situation with the projected light snow for Thursday, and the bitter cold that follows.
The morning computer model runs have come out, and one thing that we’ve begun to notice is that the data is less and less impressed with the weak frontal disturbance that will push thru. Here is the simulated radar for 10pm tonight:
The gray shading is very light snow… and then because the precipitation is so light… the model struggles with the precipitation type (hence why you see green on this map). Rest easy… anything that falls will fall as snow. But the moisture is very light… and that continues overnight… here is the 6am Radar:
You can see, light snow continues to fall across the HV into the AM on Thursday. So while it snows all night… it’s very light. The result is the model is not impressed with snowfall totals:
Most of the area sees 1 to 2 inches according to the NAM model… with the Catskills and Taconics looking at 2 to 4 inches. So we’re sticking with our general 1 to 4 inches of snow… lower amounts in the valley, higher totals as you go up in elevation. It definitely will have the potential to make for a messy Thursday AM commute.
Behind the front (late AM Thursday)… temperatures PLUMMET. Look at the GFS model’s projection for temperatures on Thursday. We start off in the 20s… and by 7pm… may be in the low single digits:
Be prepared to bundle up… a complete update later tonight…. where we’ll take a detailed look at the Weekend and beyond. For now… plan for a possible long duration snow event … possibly multiple light events (anywhere from Saturday thru Tuesday). More details later…