Morning lows will drop into the mid to upper teens across the region with highs rebounding into the mid to upper 20’s with partly cloudy skies. Clouds will be on the increase during the day as a storm system passes to our south. This system still looks to keep the bulk of its marginal precipitation field to our south with areas from the mid hudson valley south being only grazed by a period of snow showers and light snow Wednesday night. This looks like a mostly unimpressive event for most of the region with anything from a trace to an inch being the common accumulations across the region.
Below is a look at the NAM model simulated radar for 1AM Thursday, it shows a very disorganized and light precipitation shield across the region. Also shows precipitation struggling to reach into the upper Hudson Valley, best guess is snow showers will develop from SW to NE between 11Pm Wednesday and 2AM Thursday with all precipitation pulled out of the region before daybreak on Thursday.
Next our attention turns to a storm system that multiple forecast models have developing for the weekend. As of the latest data this storm was tracking too far to our South and East to bring a significant snowfall to our region. When forecasting it is important to not take information like this verbatim, it is important to look at trends, this storm track has been trending further north and west over the last several days. Because of this persistent trend and the small margin separating this storm from a near graze to a significant storm means its way to soon to count this storm out just yet. On the flip side we have seen a lot of fantasy storms appear and disappear this winter and the forecasting models have been less than stellar on a few occasions, so it is equally important not to get our hopes up either. We expect that data to really begin to hone in on something closer to the final scenario over the next 24-48 hours, we will of course be monitoring the situation very closely and will keep you all informed as the situation develops. Below is a GFS model image of the storm system as it passes very closely to our southeast on Sunday. At 979 millibars it is a quite impressive low pressure system which only highlights the importance of why we need to closely monitor the situation. If you are a snow lover you will want to see a post from us on Wednesday discussing the track shifting NW, if you are not in the mood for any snow, then you want things to remain the same, or for the track to shift SE.