** RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE HUDSON VALLEY **
The humidity was lower on Tuesday than on Monday… but the preliminary data suggests Poughkeepsie tied a record high temperature of 88°…
The month of May is a whopping 11 degrees above average… but that number will shrink a bit over the next couple days. That’s because our cold front has pushed through… and the cold, Canadian air mass is taking control of the Hudson Valley. Putting an end to our summer preview.
The northwest wind will blow through the day on Wednesday… and when combined with the cooler temperatures, it will feel like an entirely different season.
While we’re still in the middle of spring… Wednesday will feel like we turned the calendar from Summer to Fall. Highs on Wednesday will be around 20 degrees colder than Tuesday… so make sure you’re ready for a bit of a shock to your system.
The dry conditions this spring, will combine with gusty winds and low humidity on Wednesday. That’s a dangerous combination… that already has “Fire Weather Watches” posted as of Tuesday night. Those watches will all but certainly become “Red Flag Warnings” on Wednesday (Check the scrolling advisories at the top of the page for details). The fire danger is very high… so please, do not burn anything outdoors. Please be alert to any open flames, as we already have seen wild fires flare back up in parts of the region.
For Wednesday night… the winds die down, the skies become clear… and temperatures will plummet, likely down into the upper 30s for parts of the area!
We don’t anticipate any frost concerns at this point… it will be cold, but probably a few degrees too warm for frost. We’ll keep an eye out for any advisories… but a very cold night on tap (for mid May).
**Wed 11am Update ** : Frost and Freeze Advisories are being posted for Sullivan, Delaware & the Higher terrain of Ulster, Greene and Columbia counties (Catskills & Taconics). We will try to monitor this through the day, but temperatures in those locations could drop low enough to experience a frost/freeze late tonight… so be prepared to take appropriate action if you have sensitive plants.
Beyond that… we are looking down the road for some rain… any rain. Normally… we should have seen around 2 inches of rain by this point in May. Instead, Poughkeepsie has seen 0.02″ of rain… barely anything. So any rain is welcome rain… even if it comes on a weekend. And sure enough… that’s what it looks like may happen…
A disturbance will make it’s way into the east coast over the weekend. It’s not looking well organized or strong by any means… but it may have some light rain associated with it, so we’ll be watching it closely. It has the potential to make for a damp, gray and cool weekend… but we can safely say that we need to bite the bullet and take “our medicine”. The long range projection (above) suggests we could see up to 1″ of rain in the next 7 days. The rain is much needed… so despite it being the weekend… we’re going to cross our fingers for some rain.
For more details… please check out the HVW 5 Day Forecast
We need some rain… as if that comes to a surprise to anyone at this point. As I was driving home from work on Tuesday, the Shawangunk Ridge was on fire once again… with smoke billowing into the sky. Until we get some substantial rainfall… this is going to be a continuous concern. The problem we’re having, is that a persistent ridge of high pressure has been locked over the east coast. It’s been so strong… that even when the ridge breaks down (like it has now)… it manages to dry out virtually all of the rainfall previously associated with the cold front. We dropped temperatures over 20 degrees in 1 day… and all we saw were some sporadic light rain showers, no organized steady rain. Hopefully we can see some continuous light rain showers over the weekend… and begin to erode this rainfall deficit.
Well… time to get some sleep. The family continues to be doing awesome… and I’m very lucky, and very happy. Thank you for all your support… both for me personally, and especially for HVW. With the warmer weather… it’s easy to “break up” with your weather forecaster. So we really appreciate the continual support. Have a great Wednesday everyone!