Wednesday: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle in the morning, even a spotty shower. Partial clearing during the afternoon, and turning colder by late afternoon. High in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday Night: Clear and cold. Low in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Thursday: Morning sun followed by increasing clouds, and chilly. High in the mid to upper 40s.
Take a look at the almanac from Tuesday… the high temperature in Poughkeepsie was 64°, a full 10 degrees above the average high. That was common across the area, as despite a fair amount of clouds… temps were well above average.
Wednesday will see that trend continue, in advance of the arctic cold front. Clouds, fog, drizzle and even a few spotty showers will kick the day off to a gray and damp beginning, but as the front passes, the winds shift to the NW, and the clouds should break up quite a bit during the afternoon. So while the sun should come out, the temps will begin to dip… as the colder air begins to filter into the region. Wednesday night, we’ll see the cold settle in… and the majority of the area should be near or below 32°.
Thursday is chilly, but not terribly cold. Afternoon highs should reach into the mid and upper 40s (5 degrees below average), but the clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon. A few spotty rain or snow showers are possible into Thursday night. The rain and snow showers don’t appear like they’ll be too numerous, but some of us will see some rain drops or wet snow flakes. Parts of the Catskills could see a dusting of wet snow.
Looking Ahead… the storm threat for Friday has faded, as the low pressure we have been watching will stay well out to sea. So we’ll get cold this weekend for sure. Friday, Saturday and Sunday all look cold and blustery…
This map shows the GFS model’s high temperatures for Saturday… but we can tell you that the European model looks exactly like this for Saturday, and both the GFS and European have highs all 3 days ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s. That is a solid 10 to 15 degrees below average for this time of year.
If you were hoping that this would be just a passing “fad”… you might want to look away from the screen…
This map is the European ensemble 500mb mean… for all you English speaking folk, this is just the upper level air pattern over a 5 day period for next week. It shows the jet stream build a mega ridge of high pressure in NW Canada, that means well above average temps out west. But the jet stream plunges south over the eastern US, and will pull some very cold, arctic air into the Hudson Valley. This pattern is likely even colder than what we’re seeing over the coming weekend… so this very cold pattern will most likely extend straight through next week. Now all we need is a storm or two… and we have some serious shots at snow. At the moment… we’re watching a threat for Sunday night into Monday… and possibly another storm mid to late next week. Possibilities yes… but nothing concrete at the moment. We’ll keep you posted.
Well… I’m officially having way too much fun doing these posts. I’ve spent nearly 2 hours putting this together (while watching TV), and enjoyed the heck out of putting it together. Hopefully you enjoyed reading it. Alex and I definitely have our hands full right now… but this is why we partnered up. This time of year is what we live for. We love this stuff, and enjoy educating and preparing you for what’s ahead. Hope you have a great Wednesday…