8:30 Sleet Storm Radar
The sleet continues to pour down on the HV this evening. As of 8:30, about 4″ of snow and sleet have fallen in Pine Bush, and similar conditions are found all across the area.
A look at the radar shows that finally, we have some holes in the precipitation, meaning that parts of the area might see a break from the moderate to heavy sleet that has been falling. Conditions won’t improve, even if the sleet tapers off for a while, so hopefully you are already where you need to be.
Expect periods of sleet to mix with freezing rain toward midnight, and become lighter and more scattered late. Temps will try to climb above freezing by morning, but it will be a struggle, and just how “warm” we get on Wednesday is not yet certain. So with that in mind, the Wed AM commute could have headaches, we’ll have to see how temps respond after midnight. Stay safe, and stay warm… another update in a few hours.
7PM Storm Update–
Most of the region has now turned over to sleet, according to the short range guidance we will now see a 4-6 hour period of sleet, which may fall heavy at times through the overnight. Do not take the transition to sleet as a sign of improving conditions, travel will likely deteriorate further overnight as ice accumulates over earlier snowfall. Please avoid travel if possible and use extreme caution if you must travel across the region overnight. With such an extended period of sleet occurring we may actually see 1-3 inches of sleet on top of the 1-3 inches of snow, while sleet accumulates a lot slower due to its ability to settle it can still accumulate during extended periods of moderate to heavy intensity. Please keep the observations coming as they are invaluable to our weather community and to our forecast, stay safe!
To add to Alex’s post… here are the HRRR simulated radar images for 6pm and 8pm tonight:
You can see that the changeover to sleet is expected to occur between 6pm and 8pm tonight. Despite plenty of cold air at the surface and even at the cloud level… all it takes is a small wedge of cold air at one layer of the atmosphere, and the snow gets melted to sleet. That is what we’re facing tonight. It appears the sleet will fall moderate (to even heavy at times) tonight.
So while the original snowfall forecast of 3 to 6 inches…. may become a reality of 1 to 4 inches… the net result (in terms of impact) is the same… because we will likely see a period of heavy sleet on top of that snow. Travel conditions tonight will be treacherous to say the least, as traction on sleet is worse than traction on snow. Please get where you need to be before sunset, as travel will get increasingly difficult.
Also… here’s the latest Facebook Radar Update…
The snow is really thumping away right now across the Hudson Valley. Moderate to heavy snow can be found just about everywhere, with reduced visibilities, and snow covered roads.
You can see the sleet approaching from the west… but before it reaches the HV, there is a band of heavy snow set to push thru over the next 1 to 2 hours. Expect moderate to heavy snow thru sunset… with sleet gradually mixing in after 6pm. Much of the area will see the changeover to sleet occur by 8 or 9pm, with periods of moderate sleet expected after that.
An ugly night of weather in store for the Hudson Valley. We’ll be here to cover the situation, and keep you on top of things as we go thru the night. Please use extreme caution out there… as the combination of low visibilities and snow covered roads will lead to many accidents.
Once the snow begins it will increase in intensity rather quickly and very cold surface temps will result in rapidly deteriorating road conditions by the evening commute. The wind gusting out of the south is an early indicator of the warmer air that is overrunning the cold airmass in place across the region. While the cold air will never release its him near the surface it will be eroded out of the upper atmosphere. This process will eventually turn snow to sleet from south to north this evening. Just how heavy the snow fall from now till this transition will determine low or high end of the snowfall forecast. Please use caution traveling this afternoon through the overnight. – Alex –
1:30pm Radar Update
The snow is beginning to show up on radar across the Hudson Valley at this hour. However, we have very dry air across the region… so most of what’s showing up on radar over the HV is evaporating before reaching the ground. In fact, you have to go into PA to find any reports of snow falling at this hour. As the snow falls from the sky, it will begin to moisten the atmosphere, and eventually reach the ground. How long it takes to reach the ground is a bit uncertain… So if you are seeing snow in your area, please let us know in the comments below, so we can better track this system.
Expect the snow to begin falling between now and 4pm, and conditions will deteriorate rapidly once the snow flakes fly. We’ll have updates thru the afternoon as the situation unfolds. -Bill-