2:00pm Radar Update
A broken line of heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms continues to swing through the Hudson Valley at this hour. None of these storms are severe… but if one of the cells hits your area, you can expect very heavy downpours and gusty winds. They are moving fast, so they likely won’t last long in any one area.
11:30am Radar Update
We’re beginning to see development and enhancement of showers and thunderstorms at this hour. With the exception of one shower over Ulster County… the majority of the development is to the Southwest of the Hudson Valley.
We expect more showers and thunderstorms to develop and intensify as we move into early afternoon. As of now, there are no severe weather watches for the Hudson Valley. The mostly cloudy skies across our area has kept the severe threat marginal so far… but some breaks in the clouds are moving this way… and that could allow the atmosphere to destabilize a bit.
We’ll continue to track things… but as we head into early afternoon, expect clouds and sun, along with humid conditions. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue to rise, so be aware of the weather in your area… as storms could pop up quickly in the next few hours. Storms could contain strong wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours. More updates as things develop
(original post below)
After a very busy Monday… we’re hoping for a somewhat quieter day on Tuesday. It was warm and unsettled across the region, with some morning showers… leading into a Tornado Watch… and then late afternoon and evening thunderstorms, that thankfully remained non-severe. The Tornado Watch caught everyone by surprise, and created quite a buzz around the HV. Tuesday looks unsettled… but we don’t expect the severe weather concern that existed on Monday.
Tuesday does look to start out very similar to the way we started Monday… with a threat of scattered showers…
The threat of scattered showers… even an embedded thunderstorm, will exist prior to sunrise on Tuesday… and last through much of the morning. High humidity will create atmospheric instability… and that could give rise to a shower and just about any point on Tuesday. The best chance will be early in the day… and then again late in the day.
As the frontal boundary begins to push through the northeast late on Tuesday… a more focused band of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop. They could lead to heavy downpours and possibly some gusty winds… but the severe threat appears low at this point. Just like Monday… we’ll be tracking this closely, and should any watches or warnings be issued… we will pass the information along.
Despite the instability, we will still warm up nicely… with afternoon high temperatures expected to climb just above the 80° mark…
Things clear out nicely for Wednesday and Thursday… but for more details… please check out the:
HVW 5 Day Forecast.
Wow… what a busy day. I think as a whole, the day went pretty much as expected, with one exception… the Tornado Watch. I’ll be honest… it even caught me off guard. But I just want to take a minute to clarify how NWS Advisories work, and how HVW operates with respect to them.
The Tornado Watch was issued by the Storm Prediction Center, based in Norman Oklahoma. They are the experts on severe weather… watching and analyzing every piece of data, and they will issue severe weather advisories accordingly. On Monday, they were observing a combination of factors, one of which was low level wind shear… that when combined with the thunderstorms pushing across NY and PA… could spawn one or two tornadoes. As a result… they issued a Tornado Watch for part of the Hudson Valley.
HVW will always report National Weather Service (NWS) advisories, as they are “official” and designed to keep people safe and informed. Plain and simple… NWS advisories save lives. HVW will never contradict, dismiss, or disregard NWS advisories… because to do so, could cause confusion, put people in danger and would be irresponsible.
The ‘problem’ with NWS advisories, however… is the public can find them confusing at times. In part, because some advisories are rare… and other times because an advisory could pertain to a specific area (city), but be issued for a much larger area (entire county). Take Monday for instance… when HVW posted the Tornado Watch on Facebook, it was shared over 700 times, and seen by over 60,000 people. Fan comments appeared very concerned and confused… with the most common confusion revolving around what a ‘tornado watch’ means. So then, at the end of the day… with not one single report of severe weather, some people were calling it “hype” and may be less inclined to heed the advisory next time.
One of the things HVW tries to do, is explain and communicate in situations like we saw on Monday. Over reaction to an advisory can cause just as much confusion as indifference. So we posted on HVW.com explaining the risk of a tornado to be roughly a 2% chance, because it appeared that some people perceived the threat to be much higher. We weren’t trying to dismiss the threat… merely, better quantify it for you, the reader. A Tornado Watch is a serious advisory, that needs to be treated as such. But a little extra information can go a long way to helping people properly plan the rest of their day. And to those who call it “hype”… today’s Tornado Watch had between a 2% and 5% chance of a tornado. That means out of 100 Tornado Watches… 95 or more of them will be “busts”. But those 5 or so times where a tornado does form… could alter people’s lives forever, so we must insist that people pay close attention to additional weather information on days where a Tornado Watch (or severe thunderstorm watch for that matter) is issued.
Ok… that’s enough. My apologies, I didn’t mean to turn this into a PSA, but when Alex and I see confusion like we saw on Monday… we are reminded of what part of our mission with HVW is, and that is to get you the best and clearest information possible. So hopefully this helped explain a little better, what a Tornado Watch (or other NWS Advisory) is… and how HVW communicates those advisories, independent of our own forecast. Anyone with questions or comments, please leave a comment in the comment section, or you can e-mail me personally at [email protected]
Have a great Tuesday!