In like a lion… out like a lion. In the winter that never ends… why would we expect it to be any different?
Our concern from the past few days, continues to be the focus of our attention… and that is the potential for a burst of snow Tuesday afternoon. A small, compact disturbance will push south from Canada on Tuesday. The storm is so narrow, that a slight shift in the track of just 25 miles north or south… could result in dramatically different weather for the Hudson Valley.
Unfortunately, the data has not been extremely helpful… as a lot of conflicting information has emerged. There are basically 2 scenarios that could be expected for the Hudson Valley on Tuesday. The first possibility, is best highlighted by the latest GFS model (valid as of 12am Tuesday morning).
If the GFS model’s solution is correct, the storm tracks from northern Ohio to southern NJ. That would leave a swath of snow from around the NYC area into the southern Hudson Valley. In this case… the heaviest snow is confined south of I-84, and areas north of I-84 would likely see only a dusting of wet snow. The further south this storm tracks… the less impact for the Hudson Valley.
The second possibility is highlighted by the latest NAM computer model (valid 11pm Monday night).
The NAM model tracks the storm slightly further north than what the GFS model suggests, and the results are noticably different for the HV. The latest NAM model focuses the steadiest snow band right through the Hudson Valley… as can be seen in the Simulated Radar for 6pm Tuesday (above). If this solution is correct, the Hudson Valley could see a “thump” of heavy wet snow… with the potential to cause some significant headaches Tuesday afternoon and evening. Snow could fall heavily for 3 or 4 hours, and accumulate on all surfaces (paved and unpaved). The NAM solution above… is the reason we have been so focused on this threat over the past 3 days. It has the potential to catch a lot of people off guard if accurate.
There is a lot of uncertainty with this event… as the tiniest track shift, could have significant impacts on what you see out your window. A couple points of focus…
- The window for snow to begin is between 1pm and 4pm. We expect the wet snow to move in from west to east during that time.
- Areas north of New Paltz and Poughkeepsie have the best chance to see minimal impact from this event. If the GFS storm track is correct, northern areas would only be grazed by a dusting of wet snow.
- The potential exists for a period of heavy, wet snow from I-84, on south. If that occurs, travel conditions could become treacherous… with low visibility and potentially snow covered roadways.
For now *Subject to Change*, here are what we’re thinking for snowfall accumulations..
- North of I-84 – Dusting to 1 inch of wet snow… mainly on grassy surfaces
- Near and South of I-84 – Dusting to 3 inches of snow… potentially accumulating on all surfaces
Remember… a slight change in the expected storm track… could have significant implications for our forecast. With the trending south of the data on Monday… the above snowfall forecast is conservative. We’ll be tracking this as much as possible on Tuesday, to see if snowfall projections need to be increased for the northern half of the viewing area.
Have a safe start to your Tuesday… HVW 5 Day Forecast Can Be Found Here