The Hudson Valley has been relatively quiet so far today in terms of weather, but don’t let your guard down… we’re not out of the woods by any stretch.
First, above is the current HVW Interactive Radar as of 10:48pm. You can see that there is an area of moderate to heavy rain building to our south in NJ. That area of rain is moving north. At the same time, the cold front is advancing toward us from the west. As the two areas converge on the Hudson Valley, we expect the area of rain to expand and enhance right over top of us. This will lead to rapidly increasing rainfall rates after midnight. In short… the Hudson Valley could go from dry to heavy downpours in a short period of time.
The simulated radar image above represents 3am on Wednesday… by which time, the majority of the Hudson Valley is seeing moderate to heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates up to 1 inch per hour can occur for brief periods of time. In areas where excessive rainfall rates occur, flash flooding can quickly become a problem. Detroit and Baltimore both saw the impacts of Flash Flooding on Tuesday, so if you’re driving and the road is underwater… do not try to cross it.
Despite the quiet weather so far on Tuesday… the short range computer model data continues to project heavy rainfall totals over the next 12 to 15 hours (by early afternoon Wednesday). A widespread 1 to 2 inches are possible, with localized areas over 3 inches possible. The key to the graphic above… is it tries to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will fall. A rainfall event like this, can see a band of intense rainfall develop in an area… and impact it for several hours. While 50 miles away, the conditions are drastically different. In this computer model run… northern NJ gets absolutely crushed, and the southern part of the HV gets hit very hard as well. If this area of rain were to shift north by 50 miles… the Hudson Valley would be under the bullseye. So keep your guard up, while not everyone will see the worst conditions, Flash Flooding is possible (if not likely) where the heaviest rainfall occurs… and please, remember… do not try to drive thru flooded roadways.
The moderate to heavy rainfall will likely continue into the mid morning hours… tapering off between 8am and 12pm. The afternoon looks mostly dry, with a few breaks of sun possible late in the day.