The warm air is flooding into the Hudson Valley at the mid levels this morning… and that resulted in a rapid (almost immediate) change to sleet and freezing rain across the Hudson Valley. A lot of the valley snow we were expecting and forecasting… was going to fall on the front end of this storm system. In light of those developments, we have adjusted the snowfall forecast…
Updated Snowfall Forecast (thru Wed AM):
- Zones 1 & 2 (Catskills) : 6 to 14 inches (lower totals near 1000ft, amounts increase with elevation)
- Zones 3 & 4 : Slushy Coating (only if wet snow mixes in this afternoon)
- Zones 5 & 6 : Coating to 4 inches (depending on elevation)
- Zone 7 : Slushy Coating (only if wet snow mixes in this afternoon)
- Zone 8 : None
- Zone 9 : None
The concern we’ve voiced regarding the potential for some dynamic cooling as the storm intensifies is also diminished. The heaviest precipitation will fall across the Hudson Valley between 11am and 5pm… and during that time, the 850mb temperatures (cloud level temperatures) are now projected to be too warm to support snow. It’s close… but it appears unlikely:
We discussed the very tricky nature of this forecast… and had wanted to draw your attention to the potential for some surprises (one which looked as if some surprise valley snows might be possible). The variable of warm air at the cloud level was going to make or break the forecast… and the rapid invasion of warmth at the mid levels eliminated the potential for valley snows from this storm. But that’s why we like to discuss all the possibilities with you… so you’re prepared for all the scenarios.
Now… if you’re a skier or live in the Catskills… you’re singing a different tune. The higher elevations of the Catskills are getting hammered this morning, and will continue to, thru the afternoon. Lower elevations (near 1000ft) in the Catskills are seeing the warm air cause mixing. We’ll have updates as we move thru the afternoon, both here and on the Facebook page. Thanks for your support!