Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers, becoming more likely during the afternoon. High 75° to 80°. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday Night: Cloudy with periods of rain… heavy at times. Low in the mid 60s. Chance of rain near 100%. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible, with locally higher amounts.
Wednesday: Rain, possibly heavy at times, tapering off during the morning… mostly cloudy during the afternoon. High in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%.
After a stretch of absolutely gorgeous weather the past several days… we’re staring directly into an ugly 24 to 36 hours. Let’s break the storm down piece by piece for the Hudson Valley:
The morning starts off mostly cloudy, with scattered showers building in from the west. The moisture will battle some resilient dry air at the mid levels of the atmosphere… which will keep the showers mainly light, and scattered in nature during the late morning and early afternoon hours. In fact, the Hudson Valley should only see scattered showers thru much of the afternoon. Expect on and off periods of light to moderate rain thru the afternoon hours on Tuesday, continuing into the night time hours when the rain becomes steadier and heavier…
As the storm rotates into the Northeast Tuesday night, a feature known as a negatively tilted trough will provide extra energy into the atmosphere, and should help to enhance the rainfall over the Hudson Valley. Exactly how this plays out is a little tricky… but the potential clearly exists for moderate to heavy rainfall during the late night hours Tuesday night… and continuing into the early morning hours on Wednesday. You can see on the simulated radar images above, that an area of moderate to heavy rainfall is projected to enhance to our south, and build northward into the Hudson Valley after midnight. The moderate to heavy rain continues into Wednesday morning… before exiting the Hudson Valley from southwest to northeast. By the time the event has ended… some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible:
You can see the entire Hudson Valley is projected to see 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall by the time everything is said and done, with locally higher totals… especially in the Catskills, where locally 4 inches of rain could fall. As a result of the potential for such locally heavy rainfall totals in such a short period of time… Flash Flood Watches have been posted across the majority of the Hudson Valley.
The entire event winds down Wednesday morning, and pulls out of the area by mid day Wednesday… giving us drier conditions for the 2nd half of the day, even if the clouds do hang on. The 2nd half of the work week looks mainly dry… but a bit cooler. We’ll take a closer look at the rest of the week, once we get thru this storm system.
Updates on the Facebook page as we go through the day Tuesday and into Wednesday, and possibly even an update on the HVW website, to update on exactly what we’re expecting in terms of rainfall Tuesday night. Hope your Tuesday is great… even if the weather is not. Enjoy the day!