Thursday: Clouds mixing with increasing sunshine. High in the low 30s. Winds light and variable.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy skies with a light breeze. Low in the upper teens. Winds west / southwest around 5mph. Wind Chills in the single digits.
Friday: Increasing clouds, turning very breezy with scattered flurries possible. High in the low to mid 30s. Northwest wind increasing to 10 to 15mph.
Well… anyone who was still wondering where winter was…. isn’t asking that question anymore. We started Wednesday with temperatures a few degrees on either side of 0°… and didn’t get past the mid 20s. In Poughkeepsie, the day was a full 11 degrees below average… some mighty cold stuff.
Heading into the Weekend
Thursday looks quiet enough… temps near or just below average. Then as we head into Friday… some surprises are heading our way. Most people have been chattering about the coming “thaw”. Well… if you are one of those people, Friday may catch you off guard.
A cold front will drop down from Canada during the first half of Friday, and one more time… the wind will increase, and temperatures will go in the tank. Instead of the warm up that has been rumored… we’re going in the other direction. Friday night lows will likely fall into the single digits… and Saturday highs struggle into the mid 20s.
The “thaw” that everyone is buzzing about… is actually going to end up being ONE (1) whole day… and that day is Sunday. You can check out the 5 Day Forecast for more details on the thaw… but we’re watching it very closely, as there is even a slight chance that Sunday is just barely above normal.
So many things to talk about… so little time.
First… the “thaw”. The last 10 days have been below average. During that time, the chatter in the weather forecasting community was all about how the cold was not going to last. The reason for that… is because all of the indicators (called teleconnections) had warm signals. In the interest of time… I won’t go into the technical “nerdy” details… but lets just say that while all of the indicators said we should be warming up… we stayed well below average. The reason for this is definitely up for debate (Alex and I think it has to do with a phenomenon known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming that recently occurred), but one thing that is concerning… is that starting next week, many of those same indicators… will have cold signals. So what happens then?? Lets just say… HVW would recommend finding a nice warm blanket for the final 10 days of January.
And as if this wasn’t enough of a surprise to anyone wanting a strong January thaw… we’re closely watching Sunday. Indications are now beginning to appear, that a coastal storm will develop along the frontal boundary Sunday night. In all likelihood, it’s a rain event. However… some of the data is hinting at some wet snow Sunday night into Monday? A long shot? … absolutely. But just think how crazy that would be!! Our “thaw”, becomes a 1 day warm up… that ends with snow?
Stranger things have happened… Have a great Thursday!