Areas of light snow will cause some slick roadways for the Thursday AM commute. The arctic frontal boundary will slowly press thru the Hudson Valley… and as it does, it will continue to touch off some light snow:
Once the frontal boundary pushes south and east of the Hudson Valley… the winds intensify out of the northwest, and the cold air really settles into the Hudson Valley. We start the day out in upper 20s to near 30… but look where we end up by the afternoon hours…
With temperatures falling into the teens during the afternoon hours… and winds out of the Northwest at 10 to 20mph… we’ll see wind chills ranging between +10° and -10°. Be sure to dress appropriately on Thursday… just because the day starts out seasonably comfortable… does not mean that’s how the day will finish. Case in point… look at the GFS model’s projected low temperatures for Friday morning… widespread temperatures (not wind chill) below zero, in some cases near -10°.
So a frosty finish to the work week for sure… For more details, please check the HVW 5 Day Forecast. We always have a detailed 5 day outlook available for you, just one click away.
Long Range Storm Threat
As we move into the weekend, we’re going to have a frontal boundary move into the northeast. That frontal boundary will likely stall out, and allow multiple weak disturbances to ride along it… over a several day period. The result is a very challenging forecast, but also a potentially snowy forecast.
A weak disturbance moves thru Saturday afternoon… and potentially spreads some light snow showers, with little (if any) accumulation. That moves out to sea… and hot on it’s heals is this system:
A relatively weak system moves in from Canada… but thanks to the Pineapple Express (an atmospheric river of moisture… the same phenomenon that is bringing much needed rainfall to California), this system will have a fair amount of moisture to work with… especially considering how cold the air will be.
The result looks to be a steady snow breaking out in the pre-dawn hours on Sunday… and lasting through much of the day. The steady snow could begin to lighten up during the evening hours, as this system begins to depart… but right behind this area of disturbance… is another.
A second piece of energy will rotate on down from Canada… with the moisture supplied by the same Pineapple Express. This storm will re-intensify the snow across the Hudson Valley. While not particularly ‘heavy’… it does appear to be a steady moderate snowfall. As of the image above… we’re approaching 24 hours of moderate snow.
The snowfall appears likely to continue thru Sunday night, and into Monday…
By late Monday… the moderate snow continues across the Hudson Valley. Now about 36 hours into the moderate snow event. The storm is beginning to depart, but light to moderate snow is projected to continue into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, before tapering off.
As the forecast stands this moment… we don’t have a particularly strong storm developing. Rather, it’s a series of weak waves of energy… supplied with considerable moisture from the atmospheric river known as the Pineapple Express. The result… could be a LOT of snow. It’s too early to discuss specifics and accumulations… but this scenario would result in a long duration, substantial snow event. There is considerable model agreement on this event. The specific details need to be worked out… but all the models have a solution similar to what we’ve just shown you. Over the coming days… we’ll iron out the track, and intensity of the event.
Worth noting… is one wildcard. The Canadian model has picked up on the potential, that instead of the storm departing “harmlessly” out to sea (after 36 hours of snow, mind you)…. the Canadian model churns the storm up into an intense coastal storm. This would mean additional snowfall… and would end the event with a major “bang”. However… at the moment, this solution appears to be the unlikely outlier. However… it is on the table as an option.
We’ll be watching this very closely as we head into the weekend. So be sure to check back here… as well as on the Facebook page, for more information.