Below are two maps that show the snowfall outcome based on two very possible tracks for our system. The final track will determine where the heaviest bands of snow set up and just how far the western edge of the precip may reach. Instead of only showing one scenario or the worst scenario we feel its important to show the two most probable outcomes. Most model guidance continue to take this storm on a more easterly track, the exception is the European model which has continued to consistently show a more westerly track. We would generally dismiss a model that does not have consensus from other models, but the european model has a track record of accuracy, is designed to deal with dynamic storms such as this one and has not wavered from its forecast.
We are now switching from a forecasting position to a nowcasting position as the storm begins to organize to its south, this will be a fluid situation throughout the day and we will likely be tweaking the forecast as needed. Despite all of the media attention around this storm, please keep in mind that the final track will make the difference in the Hudson Valley between a significant storm and a severe storm, it is best to be over prepared and not need it, then under prepared and need it. Please stay tuned both here and on the Facebook page as we continue to track this storm, please check out the previous website post for even more details on the storm.