10:30pm Radar Update
The back edge of the snow is now approaching the Hudson Valley, and it will slowly bring the snow to an end in the next couple hours. Snow will taper off from west to east between now and 1am on average. When all is said and done, most of the HV will have seen between 3 and 6 inches of snow (with some localized amounts up to 8″).
Roads are very treacherous tonight, and likely will remain that way until the early AM commute on Monday. Please keep this in mind as you start your day. Snow covered and icy roads are quite likely, so allow extra travel time as you begin your day. We’ll have a recap of this storm Monday night… once all the data comes in.
Thank you so much for tracking this storm along with us today. Your observations and road condition reports are invaluable… and your support is tremendous and energizes us better than any Redbull ever could. We are humbled that you allow HVW to be your shining light through the storm. Have a safe night, everyone… stay warm… and we’ll have details on our next storm threat for Tuesday afternoon/night… on Monday.
-Alex & Bill-
6:45pm Radar Update
Light to moderate snow continues to fall at this hour across the Hudson Valley. So far, a general 1 to 3 inches has fallen, with the lowest amounts north of Kingston, and the highest totals near and south of I-84.
Expect the snow to continue over the next several hours. It will fall light to at times, moderate. A brief lull in the action is possible for southern parts of the area, as a dry patch has shown up on radar. But there is more snow behind that lull, so expect another 4 to 8 hours of snow across the entire region tonight… and that should bring totals right into range… a general 3 to 6 inches.
Please continue to share observations and road conditions in the comments below. Take it slow out there tonight… more updates as the evening wears on.
1PM Nowcast Update:
NOWCAST- As the storm system nears the region we are seeing better dynamics (lift) as precipitation is starting to redevelop across PA and build North. We can expect snow to intensify as we head into the early afternoon. We still have concerns on how far north the heaviest snow will push and the shadowing effect east of the Catskills. At this point areas North of Kingston towards eastern Greene County and into Columbia County are the areas most susceptible to this downslope effect. Our snow accumulation map remains unchanged, with the areas listed above possible verifying on the lower end of the forecast. We will continue to monitor and update as needed though the afternoon. A check of the sky-view from the foot hills of the Catskills show the sun now fighting darker clouds as moisture tries to push north.
11AM Nowcast Update:
NOWCAST: One of the things we are continuing to monitor throughout the day is dry air that will be trying to impact this systems northern fringes. We also need to watch down-sloping (shadowing) effects across parts of the region. These two things working in tandem can have impacts on snow totals across the northern most parts of our region. We have seen this many times this season, and we have not seen many storms behave as modeled this season either.
With that said, this is why we nowcast the storms and watch current observations and trends for the duration of the event so we can make adjustments as needed. The radar image below clearly shows the impacts that dry air is having to our west, and a look out my window in central Ulster County shows filtered sun though the clouds, likely due to down-sloping off of the Catskills to the west. These are things that may eventually lead to lower totals across the mid hudson valley and points north. We are expecting better dynamics to occur later this afternoon, which may redevelop the precipitation and overcome some of these atmospheric and topographic roadblocks. We will continue to monitor this through the morning and into the early afternoon and make adjustments as needed.
A quick glance at the radar, and you can see the snow is rapidly approaching from the west. This snow is rather light, but should begin to overspread the area within the next couple hours. We’ll have additional posts and updates thru the day.