Well… here we go, Hudson Valley. The heat is officially on… and Sunday will mark the 2nd day of what will become our 2nd heat wave of the summer…
Poughkeepsie hit a high of 92° on Saturday… and will likely be around that mark on Sunday. The Hudson Valley will see morning sunshine, begin to mix with clouds during the afternoon. As on Saturday… a few afternoon T-Storms cannot be ruled out. The best chance appears to be near and south of I-84… areas further south than those impacted on Saturday. The storm threat appears to be minimal… and we’ll have storm updates as we go thru the day, on the Facebook page. You can track the storm activity here on the website, by using the Interactive Radar.
But the heat doesn’t end after Sunday… we’ve got several more days of heat and humidity expected. Each day bringing the slight chance of an afternoon T-Storm. You can get all the details on the HVW 5 DAY FORECAST.
Billy’s Banter / Saturday T-Storm Recap
There were 2 rounds of heavy storms on Saturday across the Hudson Valley. The first was focused in Greene and Columbia county around 5pm… and that storm was severe warned. The storm reports indicated wind damage, with some trees down in the town of Catskill and surrounding areas. But the storm I want to focus on, is the one that walloped the Poughkeepsie area around 8pm Saturday night.
This storm popped up out of no where… literally. A weak boundary was pushing thru the Hudson Valley… and storms had been flaring up all day along it. The storms were all hit or miss, and quite few and far between in general. Here’s what the radar looked like around 6:35pm…
You can see a thundershower east of Saugerties… as well as the remnants of the severe storm just crossing into Massachusetts (these storms were all moving east/southeast). But what I want you to notice… is that near New Paltz and Hyde Park… there is no sign of any activity. Now take a look at the radar 45 minutes later…
The storm that was east of Saugerties, fell apart as it pushed toward Connecticut. The storm you see between New Paltz and Hyde Park, materialized near New Paltz just before 7pm. It started out as a thundershower, but by around 7:20pm… it’s becoming quite strong. Now lets fast forward another 30 minutes… and see if it fell apart…
Just the opposite… it intensified even further. That pink you see between Hyde Park and Poughkeepsie, is likely hail or damaging winds. I say “likely”… because there are no NWS Storm Reports from this thunderstorm cell, but the HVW Facebook page sure blew up. Numerous fans reporting that they couldn’t believe this storm wasn’t severe warned… and from some of the fan reports, it appears it easily could have warranted a “severe thunderstorm warning”.
The reason I bring this up… is two fold:
First… to serve as a reminder, that during the summer, thunderstorms can materialize seemingly out of thin air.
And Second… there were some criticisms of HVW’s forecast, and timeliness of alerting to the developing situation on the Facebook page.
Now, we’re big boys… and can handle the random shots that weather forecasters will take on any given day (even days where we get it right). But rather than bring this up to defend ourselves… I wanted to discuss this, because it’s important to know, that no matter how good you think your weather provider is, the unknown is always possible. You can check the radar, everything looks good… and then minutes later, you’re dodging lightning strikes and torrential downpours. It’s always wise to keep on guard anytime you hear that storms are possible that day.
Summer thunderstorms form as a result of multiple atmospheric conditions, becoming just right to support development. On a hot summer day, with elevated humidity levels… all you need is a weak frontal boundary to drift through your area, and that could be a big enough spark to ignite strong to severe thunderstorms. Sometimes this will happen very rapidly, and without notice. So when dealing with summer weather forecasts, if you hear that scattered afternoon T-Storms are possible, just file that away… knowing your day could be interrupted at a moment’s notice. And even further… if you see the sky begin to darken in your area, check out the latest radar image… just to see if there is any activity in your area. This can be helpful, so that you are not completely caught off guard in an event such as Saturday’s.
The weather will always be unpredictable. HVW will always do it’s best to get you the information as fast as possible, as accurately as possible. Everyone have a fantastic Sunday!!