Sunday: Clouds mixing with periods of sunshine, warmer. High in the low 50s.
Sunday Night: Increasing clouds with periods of rain around midnight. Low in the low 40s. Chance of rain 100%.
Monday: Morning rain, then remaining mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Warm. High in the low to mid 60s.
Saturday was another cold one across the valley, a full 7 degrees below the average. November started off quite warm, but that has completely changed due to the arctic air mass over the past 10 days.
Now we see some changes on Sunday. Clouds should mix with some sun during the afternoon, and temperatures should rise above the 50 degree mark. The storm approaches from the south Sunday night, and we’ll see periods of rain begin around midnight. Rain could fall moderately at times thru the night, and taper off early on Monday morning. It looks like much of the area will see around a half an inch of rain, but some areas could see closer to 1 inch. After a damp start to Monday… temperatures should jump into the low 60s across the area! That’s almost 30 degrees warmer than Friday’s high temp!
Thanksgiving Snow Threat
The storm threat we’ve been watching the past couple days has become much more likely in the past 24 hours, so we’d like to go through this in detail with you and show you what the scenarios are. First, we’ll start with the Saturday afternoon run of the GFS Model:
Above is the GFS interpretation… and as you can quickly see, the storm stays well out to sea under this scenario. The frontal boundary pushes well out into the Atlantic Ocean, so when the storm forms along it, the moisture is well off the coast. The storm forms under every scenario… but the GFS model has consistently had the upper level energy much weaker, and too far west, for a major coastal storm to develop.
Over the last day… the ECMWF (European) model has consistently shown a much different solution. Because of licensing issues, we can’t show you the European model output… but that doesn’t mean we can’t recreate the solution for you:
The European model puts the frontal boundary closer to the coast, and is quicker with upper level energy from the Midwest. The result is a major nor’easter for the east coast… and Hudson Valley. Under the European model scenario, a weak low pressure forms near North Carolina, and undergoes “Bombogenesis”, as it rapidly deepens in 24 hours, off the coast of Massachusetts. It would spread a swath of moderate to heavy snow from western Virginia all the way to Maine… and in this case, right thru the Hudson Valley. The key is the exact track, and timing of the storm. The European data from Saturday would give you the result seen above… but it’s by no means a guarantee. We’ll continue to watch it over the coming days and provide as many updates as possible and necessary.
Hopefully you don’t mind our HVW generated version of the European model. There has been some significant drama in the weather world today regarding the European model, and what can… and cannot be shared. Simply put, ECMWF (European) products ARE NOT free to the public… whereas the GFS, Canadian and other models ARE free. Alex and I pay for access to those products, but access doesn’t necessarily mean right to redistribute. With the advent of social media, there has been a lot of confusion over the rules… and today a bright light was shown on that rulebook. So… until something changes… we’ll have to improvise with HVW arts & crafts (like above).
On that note… expect a lot of updates / conversation in the coming days, as we need to figure out where this storm is headed… as it has the potential to make a mess of the 2nd half of the busiest travel day of the year. Have a great Sunday… and enjoy the nice weather!