If you thought Saturday was hot and humid… you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet…
The National Weather Service (image above) projects highs in the low 90s. However, all other data projects highs warmer than this. The GFS model suggests 95° to 98°, and even the European model has it 92° to 95°. So don’t be surprised if these temperatures are just a bit conservative… and as a result, HVW is forecasting a high of 95°.
But all of that is irrelevant, because the humidity will make it feel much worse across the Hudson Valley. Here is the HRRR computer model’s projection for ‘real feel’ heat index temperatures for 2pm…
So regardless of what the exact temperature is… it is likely to feel more like 100° around the Hudson Valley, and it could feel even warmer in some places. The hottest day of 2015 so far… is on tap for Sunday.
We have a Heat Advisory in effect for Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester counties… but the entire valley should be prepared for an afternoon heat index approaching 100°. With such oppressive conditions expected across the Hudson Valley, please remember to take the following safety precautions:
– Stay hydrated, drink plenty of water
– Avoid excessive time in the sun
– Limit strenuous outdoor activity
The last thing we want, is for people to be caught off guard by the heat. Heat exhaustion can set in quickly, so please take it easy. Higher elevation areas will be a few degrees cooler, and should not be quite as oppressive. But it will be extremely hard to hide from the heat on Sunday. That’s in part due to the fact that we should get a good deal of hazy sunshine on Sunday…
With hazy sunshine and a southwest wind pumping heat and humidity into the Hudson Valley, don’t be surprised if we see a few late day thunderstorms flare up. Here’s a quick glance at the futurecast radar for 6pm Sunday…
The storm cell appearing on this image, is projected to push into the Hudson Valley around sunset. Whether things play out like that or not… is very uncertain. So in general, keep an eye to the sky (or HVW Radar) late in the day… as a storm or two could form and impact our area.
The heat continues on Monday… but we may see some relief in the humidity during the afternoon, especially in our northern areas. The winds should shift from the southwest to northwest… and that is a much drier, less humid flow. We’ll keep tabs on this, because 90° and humid is a lot different than 90° with low humidity. Complete forecast details are can be found in the 5 day:
HVW 5 Day Forecast
Billy’s Banter / Saturday Recap
Without double checking… Saturday was the 7th time in 2015 that Poughkeepsie recorded a high of 89°. It’s pretty uncanny that a city could hit 89° that many times without accidentally hitting 90° just one of those times. That’s the weather for you, always unpredictable. But Sunday looks fairly predictable… perhaps it’s the amount of time we’ve spent looking at it. It’s taken Poughkeepsie until July 20th to reach the 90° mark… and it appears as if they could blow it out of the water. The GFS is usually a pretty good forecasting tool in terms of high temperatures… and it’s calling for 97° in Poughkeepsie. So after failing to hit 90° all summer so far… Poughkeepsie may blow past 90° by lunch time. Either way, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Another thing that is interesting to watch, is various fan reactions to the forecast for rain. I’ve always believed that our “Weather Memories” are very short term, and that very often things that we feel like we’ve “never seen before”… actually occurred not too long ago.
In this case… we’re going to look at rainfall. Many have said how this summer it has rained virtually every day. Well… here’s a map of July rainfall across the Hudson Valley. The average rainfall in July (as you see above in the almanac) is 4.65”. So by this point in the month, we should have roughly half of that… or 2.30″ of rain. How much rain has the HV seen?
Basically… average would be anywhere shown in light yellow (approx. 2.5″). With the exception of NW Sullivan county, and extreme eastern Putnam and Westchester counties… the entire Hudson Valley is well below average for July rainfall. Now, we had some T-Storms push thru the HV on Saturday… so that will help some of these numbers… but after a slightly above average June in terms of rainfall… July has been a dry month. Next week… we’ll take a close look at the year as a whole, but for now… lets just say the HV on average is between 75% and 90% of normal in rainfall (10% to 25% below average).
Ok.. that’s enough for tonight. We went thru a lot, but there is a lot of weather going on right now. Stay cool Hudson Valley, be smart, take it easy… stay hydrated. We don’t want to hear any stories about local residents going to the hospital with heat exhaustion. Find a pool, or turn on the AC… and enjoy your Sunday!