Sunday: Mainly cloudy, with periods of light rain showers, mainly in the morning. High in the upper 40s. West / Northwest wind around 5mph.
Sunday Night: Mainly cloudy… with partial clearing after midnight. Low in the upper 20s. Winds light and variable.
Monday: Sunshine mixed with a few clouds. High in the upper 30s to low 40s. Light northwest wind at 5mph.
Poughkeepsie’s high on Saturday was 54°… a full 17 degrees above the average high of 37°. With minimal wind, you would be very hard pressed to find better weather for December 27th. The month of December is now 4.5 degrees above average… making it a very warm month as a whole.
Sunday looks rather gray, but at least mild. A weak cold front will push thru the Hudson Valley, associated with a low pressure system that pushed up into Canada on Saturday. Some light showers are possible during the morning hours, but by afternoon most of the light moisture will have exited the area… leaving us with a mainly cloudy afternoon.
The cold front will bring an end to the wonderful warmth we’ve seen… and usher in air more typical of late December. Monday’s highs will be right around 40 degrees… and temps drop a little bit each day after. In terms of storms… nothing is on the horizon at this time, at least for the next few days. For complete details, please check out the 5 day forecast.
Long Range Banter…
I’m combining the Billy’s Banter with a look at the long range weather. The reason I’m doing this, is because the long range is very ‘fuzzy’ at the moment. So we’re just going to talk about the situation, not as part of the forecast.
We showed this map in the Saturday Outlook, to demonstrate how close the two competing jet streams were, and how they will effectively battle for atmospheric dominance over the coming week(s). The northern jet will gain strength and try to exert influence over the weather in the US in the coming days. But the southern jet and it’s warm pacific air will not go quietly. How this situation unfolds will have dramatic impact on our weather.
Case in point, the last 2 runs of the European model. These images are looking at a storm threat one week from now.
This is the latest run of the European model. The map is the 850mb temperatures (cloud level temps), but they are modified to tell the story. Anywhere in blue would be cold enough for snow, otherwise it would be a rain event. You can quickly see, that this would be a big rain maker for our area. But lets look at the scenario from the previous model run…
Not only is this scenario cold enough for a snow event here in the HV… the entire setup is different. Look how much cold air is available, and how far south it is. This would be a major snow event all the way to Washington DC… and we’d be in the grasp of a major arctic outbreak.
The purpose of showing you these images… is to demonstrate how you can’t trust the models right now. Because if the positioning of the jet streams is even slightly different, the outcome for us would be dramatically different. In the images above, we’re looking at the difference between rain and 45 degrees… and snow in the mid 20s. So don’t be surprised if we see something sneak up on us in the coming week or two… because we’re entering a very active pattern, and the models will have a lot of trouble nailing down the details.
And… on that note, I’m calling it a night. Technically, we’re in the banter section, so I can be informal. Snow lovers have been disappointed so far, but things can change quickly in our area. We’ll have a lot to watch, so I better rest while I can. Have a great Sunday!