Sunday: Clouds mixed with some sunshine. Highs in the mid 40s. Light NW wind.
Sunday Night: Considerable cloudiness. Low in the mid to upper 20s. Calm winds.
Monday: Clouds mixed with sunshine, a touch milder. High in the mid 40s. Calm winds.
While Saturday hardly felt like a warm day… statistically, it was above normal. As far as the entire month of December is concerned, we’re just about at average.
Detailed forecast can be found in the 5 day forecast.
We’re going to see a few days of near to above average temperatures over the course of the next week. But while we’ve got some warmth coming… the big question is… “will it last?”. The next 3 images will take you thru the next 16 days. These are the GFS computer model ensembles looking at how the forecasted temperatures will compare to normal in 5 day chunks. Do you see a pattern change?
Now, keeping in mind the temperatures above show 5 day chunks, we start off relatively mild this week, with temperatures about 3°C (5°F) above normal… but by the time we reach the last week of December (next week), much of the nation is well below normal, and temperatures are about 3°C (5°F) below normal… and the warmth appears likely to be just a memory. We’re currently in a very zonal flow…
This type of pattern is a very rainy, stormy one for the west coast. The flow comes right in off the Pacific Ocean, and ample moisture streams right into California. You’ve probably seen about all the heavy rain and flooding in California? Well, this type of pattern is the cause. The other thing this pattern does, is pull mild Pacific air into the US. That means no arctic outbreaks… and seasonable to above average conditions in the east. In winters where this pattern locks in… the Hudson Valley traditionally doesn’t see much snow or cold.
But this pattern is projected to change in a BIG way in the next 2 weeks…
A monster ridge builds out west… and shuts off the fire hose that is currently aimed at California. The jet stream climbs all the way up into the arctic, and then dives down into the central US… pulling down plenty of cold arctic air into the eastern half of the US. This type of pattern is similar to what was in place when we had the November arctic outbreak… also similar to the pattern we saw much of last winter. When your jet stream shifts patterns like you see here… that’s how you go from 5 degrees above normal, to 5 degrees below normal in less than 2 weeks.
So we’ve got some relatively nice, tranquil weather ahead over the coming week. But don’t get too used to it… because winter will be returning, likely just in time to give those of you who are dreaming of a white Christmas, something to believe in.
Have a great Sunday!