When you have an October that was as warm as the one we had in the Hudson Valley, when the weather pattern finally shifts, it feels even colder because of sharp contrast. So while the past 2 days have been very cold, for many of us, it’s felt even worse.
After a bitter, possibly record breaking cold start to the day… get ready for a cold Sunday across the Hudson Valley. The high pressure system will be exiting the east coast, but we’ll still have considerable sunshine and blue sky to start the day. We could see some high cumulus clouds push in later in the day… out ahead of a disturbance to our west. The wind will shift around to the SW, but it’s not going to do much for temperatures. Highs only in the low to mid 40s are expected… roughly 10° below average.
Unlike many weather patterns that push through… this cold doesn’t seem in any hurry to leave. With the cold arctic air mass in place, the jet stream won’t shift much in the coming week.
The cold will surely moderate a bit as we push into the week, but with the ridge over the central US, and a weak trough over the eastern US, the colder than normal temperatures will persist in the east… while any warmth is confined to the central and SW US.
You’ll notice that the expected temperatures over the next 5 days are relatively close to the expected Jet Stream over the coming week. So long as the jet remains near or just to our south… we won’t have any surge of warmer air pushing into the region. The result is persistent cool… with highs in the 40s through the week.
One of the questions we’ve seen dozens of times over the past few days, is “Will we have a major storm / snow this week?”.
We’re not exactly sure where this is coming from… but there is no major storm on the models for the next 5 days. There hasn’t been anything in the guidance we’ve seen, to suggest that a snow event was likely (or even possible). This graphic shows the blend of 26 scenarios of the GFS averaged together, it’s called an ensemble. When you combine all of the data, none of the scenarios project accumulating snowfall in the Hudson Valley through Friday. So we’re scratching our heads a bit on where the rumors started, but as you can see, no snow the next 5 days.
Now, the pattern is surely going to be colder… and as we get beyond 7 days into the forecast, and toward Thanksgiving… we could see a chance for snow. Perhaps that’s what the buzz is about.
A trough will dig into the eastern US, and should provide a fresh shot of cold air near Thanksgiving. But the guidance is all over the map on the details… as is normal 7+ days away… and is not really worth discussing at this moment. Just something to keep in the back of your mind for later in the month.
This pattern is lining up with our expectations for November and December. We’ll have to monitor how the details unfold beyond this week… but the warmth of October is definitely a thing of the past. Have a great Sunday!