While the region is currently enjoying the forecasted lull between the first wave and the main event, we are continuing to monitor the latest data so we can continue to hone our forecast. A look at the most current high resolution models shows that precipitation will begin to spread back into the region between 12-4 PM, once it does it will still be light and at times spotty through the early evening with only light accumulations expected by dawn. Areas along and south of i84 may see very little if any precipitation during the afternoon and evening as most of the actions stays to the north.
By overnight we should see precipitation impacting the entire region, it appears that Orange,Putnam,Rockland and Westchester Counties may see a prolonged period of freezing rain, so while snow accumulations may be very light in these areas, we may still see treacherous travel Monday morning due to ice. We have been discussing that there would be a sharp gradient between moderate to heavy accumulations and barely any across our region, it appears that somewhere along i84 will be this battle line. Our forecast has always been built around the lower Hudson Valley not being the snow zone with this system and that appears to be coming to fruition.
Snow will fall at a moderate clip through Monday although we may see times of varying intensity, again this was never a very big storm with heavy snow, more so a case of how much snow can fall during the course of 48+ hours. The most heavily impacted commute continues to appear to be Monday morning and Monday evening, some residual impacts from snow and ice may linger into the Tuesday AM commute as well. Below is our latest snowfall forecast, this has remained mostly unchanged since Friday, but there will be some minor adjustments across the region.
Important to note that there may be further adjustments to this forecast we continue to monitor the latest data and observations, we will have a good handle on where the snow axis is going to setup as we head into the evening, so please keep checking back both here and on the Facebook page.
Zones 1 and 2- 8″-16″
Zones 3 and 4- 5″-10″ (shadow effect may cause isolated pockets of reduced accumulations)
Zones 5 and 6- 4″-8″ (locally more across the higher terrain)
*Zone 7- 3″-7″ (mixing possible)
*Zones 8 and 9- Snow-Trace -5″ Ice Accretion- .10″-.25″ Freezing Rain (more north/less south)
*= These zones continue to have the highest bust potential due to the final setup of the precipitation