Sunday: Morning scattered showers and thunderstorms, tapering off around mid day. Turning partly sunny and humid during the afternoon, with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible. High in the mid 80s. Chance of rain in the morning, 60%. Chance of rain in the afternoon, 40%.
Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some evening storms could be strong to severe, and contain heavy downpours, damaging winds and hail. Low in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 60%.
Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High near 80°. Chance of rain 50%.
Due to the timing of the storm threat, I’m posting this just after midnight on Sunday morning. Our Sunday weather could be active starting early in the day, so let’s just jump right into it.
Sunday Storm Threat:
The SPC continues to have our area classified as a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Alex posted earlier on Saturday, breaking down the specifics on the threat. Not much has changed since that post, but I want to take a closer look at the timing of the event.
Sunday morning looks very unsettled. Multiple sets of data indicate that a line of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Hudson Valley between 6am and noon. Below is a snapshot from the NAM model, showing the simulated radar Sunday morning at 7am. These storms could be strong with heavy downpours and gusty winds… but due to the timing (early morning), these likely will not be severe. Even so, we could see a very unsettled start to the day if the data is in fact accurate.
The batch of morning showers and thunderstorms should exit the area by late morning to early afternoon. At which time, we should see things clear out a bit. Sunshine could mix in with the clouds, and the humidity will be much higher than what we saw on Saturday. That’s going to create a very unstable atmosphere… which is the reason the SPC has us in the “slight risk” category. While the main cluster of showers and thunderstorms look to hold off until around sunset, it appears that a few strong to severe thunderstorm cells may form during the afternoon. These storms could contain damaging winds and hail, along with torrential downpours and frequent lightning.
Storm Updates will be posted on social media Sunday afternoon, you can also track the storms and advisories on the Hudson Valley Weather Interactive Radar. We’ll also try to post an update here, on the HVW website during the day if possible.
Alex and I want to give you as much information in advance as possible… but this event could offer a few surprises, in terms of location and timing of the projected thunderstorms. Just keep your eyes and ears open as we move through the day.