•This weekend will be the prime example of the calm before the storm
•Light to moderate snow possible for the mid Hudson Valley and points south as a storm brushes the region Monday into Monday evening
•A significant storm will impact the region on Wednesday, snowfall exceeding six inches across the entire region is becoming likely
•Lack of arctic air means a heavy wet snow for the region (start securing neighborhood kids for shoveling early)
•Colder air returns in the wake of the storm
•Another significant storm may impact the region Saturday/Sunday
•We are entering a very active pattern that looks to impact us next week and beyond
Lets begin with storm number one which is the smaller threat and only looks to brush our region with snow on Monday. At the moment it appears the snow will attempt to work an 8-5 across the mid and lower parts of the region. Below is the NAM model for snowfall accumulations across the region by late Monday evening.
As you can see, we are only being brushed by the Northern fringes of this system as it passes to our south, but it may still put down enough snow across the southern parts of the region to cause issues on the roads. The exact timing of it will determine if it is the morning commute or evening commute that has the biggest impact from this passing system. Below is the snowfall zone map for this first system:
Zones- 1,2- Coating to an Inch
Zones- 3,4,5,6 (North of the Mid/Lower HV Dotted Line)- Coating to 2 inches (least north, more as you head south,closer to the Mid HV dotted line)
Zones-3,5,6,7 ( South of the Mid/Lower HV Dotted Line)- 2-4 inches
Zones-8,9- 3-6 inches
Now on to storm number two, which looks to impact the region from just after midnight on Wednesday into the overnight, this storm will not brush the region and has a large amount of moisture associated with it. Therefore this will be a more significant storm for the entire region, unlike with our previous storms it will not be very cold so we will be dealing with a heavy wet snow and not a light powdery snow. The temps being slow close to freezing at the surface and above, may also lead to sleet mixing in across the Mid and Lower HV on Wednesday afternoon, by evening all regions will be cold enough for all snow once again. Seeing how we are still 3 days away from this storm impacting the region we will not get into forecasting snowfall amounts by zone, and simply say that a 6-12 accumulation is possible across the entire region. The final track,temperatures, and whether or not sleet mixes in will all have impacts on the final accumulations across the region.
Now I wish that was it, unfortunetly there are indictions that another significant storm may try to impact the region by next weekend, but this is far beyond the timeframe of getting into specifics, but as we get into the beginning of the week we will be monitoring the situation and begin to dive into more details if the storm threat remains. Nevertheless it looks like the upcoming week may be the stormiest week of the winter thus far, and I need to go buy some Red Bulls.