We’ve had some fairly significant developments so far today on the computer models. Let’s start with the adjusted forecast:
Updated Storm Timeline
- Snow begins between 12am and 4am from south to north
- Snow could fall heavy at times between 6am and 12pm
- Snow could mix with sleet and freezing rain for a brief time south of I-84.
- Snow tapers off between 3pm and 7pm from Southwest to northeast
Updated Snow Accumulation
- Zones 1 & 2 : 2 to 4 inches (lower end totals to the north and west)
- Zones (Upper HV 3 & 4) and 5: 3 to 6 inches
- Zones (Remainder of 3 & 4), 6, 7 & 8: 4 to 8 inches
- Zone 9 : 2 to 5 inches, some mixing expected (highest amounts to the north… rain/snow line critical)
* Alternate snowfall map to be updated with final forecast this evening
In the Preliminary Storm Forecast, we tried to highlight that the computer models “didn’t look right”. The storm track had continued to migrate toward a position that was most favorable for a moderate to significant impact event for the Hudson Valley… yet the models were only producing limited moisture in the Hudson Valley, which meant limited snowfall (2 to 4 inches max).
Case in point… here is the GFS model from Friday morning… which reflects a very similar idea to what all the models were pointing toward prior to today.
This just didn’t seem to make a lot of sense to us… but all of the models were pointing at a solution like the one above. And then… the NAM model came out this morning, and the concerns we had became to materialize.
One of these things is NOT like the other (gotta love Sesame Street). The computer models (all except the GFS model), have begun to incorporate significantly more moisture into the equation for the Hudson Valley. With the storm track that this storm is projected to take… this makes a lot more sense. As a result… you have the updated HVW snowfall forecast above. Putnam County has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for 5 to 8 inches of snow, so the National Weather Service also senses the disturbance in the force. We would expect some additional warnings to be issued for other counties… especially Orange and Dutchess counties.
We will have a Finalized Storm Forecast this evening by 10pm (earlier if possible)… with a finalized timeline and snow totals. We’ll have additional updates as necessary on the Facebook page.