•A storm is likely to form off the eastern seaboard on Wednesday night into Thursday
•This storm has the potential to bring significant snow,ice and wind to the region
•Currently two model’s do not agree on the final track of this system, therefore it is important to remain grounded with the forecast
•The final track of this system will determine the difference between a near miss, a brush of our southern and eastern zones, or a direct impact to the region
• What are the models saying?
- GFS- Stubbornly remains to far Southeast to bring more than a grazing of snow the the southern most parts of the region
- European Model- Relentlessly showing a powerful Nor Easter for multiple runs, and has not wavered from this solution (Also showed latest out to sea storm as a monster)
- Canadian Model– Had a powerful Nor Easter along the coast similar to the European Model and has tamed it down and pushed it further South and East and grazes the region
- NAM Model– Had a powerful Nor Easter yesterday afternoon and has since calmed it down and backed it South and East a but, also this model it out of its range of accuracy
As you can see, there has been more of a trend towards a graze than a direct impact, only reason why this storm continues to be a threat is the stellar performance that the European model generally has, along with the fact that it has no flip flopped and wavered at all from its scenario. During the day as more models come to some kind of consensus we will release the forecast, at this point its best to simply factor into your plans that a storm may impact the region during this time frame.
•Today the models will all have better sampling of this storm and its energy and should come to a better consensus on the possible track
•If the GFS and Canadian begin to cave back to the European model during todays model runs then its game on
•If the European model brings the storm south and east today, we should be concerned with a near miss or a grazing storm
•We will have a comprehensive update on this storm later this evening, stay tuned