•A significant Nor Easter will track up the east coast on Thursday
•The exact track of this Nor Easter will have varying impacts on our region
•The potential exists for a moderate to significant snowfall across the region
•The difference between a grazing moderate snowfall or a widespread significant snowfall will depend on the final track
•We are still 48+ hours away from this storm, models should come to a better consensus overnight into tomorrow AM
•This storm in the worst case scenario could spread a heavy, windswept snowfall across the region
•This storm in the best case scenario may only graze the southern and eastern zone with a moderate snowfall
•We will post frequent updates throughout the night on the model information as it becomes available
•Yes the update was 40 minutes late, but making custom maps, pulling all this data and typing without all of the correct grammar is quite time consuming, my apologies.
We are still 48+ hours out from this storm, some of the players are just entering the field and the models are have a tough time getting on the same page as to how this storm is going to play out. The coveted European model has been rock steady and unwavering in its worst case scenario forecast, it remains the deepest with the storm and the closest to the coast, this results in a widespread significant snowfall across our entire region. Sounds like a simple forecast right? Not so fast, the other models are not on the same page with the European model, we have the NAM and Canadian models a bit further east and weaker with the storm, and the GFS model the furthest of shore and close to the European in strength. It isn’t uncommon to have such a large spread amongst the major forecast models at 48 hours out from a storm, as some of the ingredients of the storm are still over the West coast this evening, as more weather balloon data and observations are made on these pieces of energy and then fed into the forecast models, we should start to see more clarity into the forecast. I have created a map to show the different tracks that the four major forecast models are showing currently, I have also listed the estimate pressure of the storm as it passes NYC on each model, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.
Probably all seems close enough right? Well, not so much these small differences in the track mean big differences in the forecast. Below are the snowfall forecasts from these four models, as you can see the slight jogs in the track spell big trouble for how much snow the HV can receive. We aren’t talking a small spread either, one model showing up to a foot or more of snow and another nearly grazing the region with 2-6 inches of snow.
At this point you can clearly see that putting out a snowfall forecast for a storm that is still 48 hours out and has so much spread amongst the models is not a very realistic thing to do. The most grounded forecast at this point is that a significant storm may impact the region on Thursday, it has the potential to spread 6+ inches of windswept snow across the region. Please begin to simply factor this potential into your plans for the week, by later tonight into tomorrow the specific impacts of this system across our region will become clearer.At the moment a blend between the European and NAM model seems to be the most realistic forecast, but we will need to monitor the situation.