•The arctic cold front has passed through the region, temps will drop significantly overnight, setting the stage for tomorrow’s snow
•Snow develops from South to North between eleven and three PM
•Snow shield will not reach very far north and its northern edges will be battling dry air, this will lead to a sharp cutoff in snow accumulations as you head North
•Accumulations will range from a dusting to as much as 8 inches or more
•Snow will be a very high ratio type, and therefore will blow and drift easily in increasing winds during the late afternoon and evening leading to reduced visibility
•Temps only in the teens, combined with blustery conditions will lead to single digit and sub zero wind chills
•Any deviation in the track can have significant implications on the forecast
•Areas north of interstate 84 to about Kingston have the highest “bust” potential for snowfall under or over achieving the current forecast (Final track,Dry Air)
•Areas below the black dashed line may have localized amounts of 10+ inches where banding develops (See accumulation map)
•Worst part of the storm occurs from early evening into the overnight hours
Updated Snowfall Forecast:
Below is the current HVW forecast for tomorrows snowfall, there will be a tight cutoff of accumulations across the HV, the details can be found below the accumulation map.
Well, the one positive is that there is not much need to change the original forecast from 4AM this morning, negative being I am already exhausted! Lets get down to the details, a storm will brush the region tomorrow with a touch of snow for some, and a potentially moderate to heavy snow for others. Because the storm is tracking further off-shore it has also shifted the heaviest axis of snow towards the I95 corridor, leaving our region on the fringes of the snow shield. In addition to the offshore track the snow shield will be battling cold, dry air pouring in from the North, this will lead to a very sharp cut-off between no snow, light snow and moderate to heavy snow. Below are five different model forecasts for the upcoming snow, you can clearly see the forecasting models are aligned with the fact that there will be a sharp cut off ,and the locations most likely to see accumulating snowfall. Keep in mind that the snowfall forecasts of these models are based on a 10-1 snow ratio, temps in the teens will spell out 20-1 to 35-1 snow ratio, so some of these amounts require a multiplier. The bitterly cold temps combined with increasingly blustery winds tomorrow evening will make for dangerous wind-chills and areas of blowing and drifting snow. This will lead to poor visibility and treacherous travel across parts of the region, especially late afternoon into the overnight hours. Its important to note that when the line between light and moderate snowfall is so tight, any deviation of the track can have huge implications on the forecast. Just imagine what a 25 mile shift NW or SE of the storm track can have on the moderate snowfall zone, tomorrow will require monitoring of the storm as it develops to sniff out any deviations in the track.
(Notice the similarities? Hard to argue!)