•Storm continue to behave as expected, with main axis of precipitation tracking far to our south
•Some glancing snow showers are still possible across the southern most parts of the region (see details)
•Do your homework and be prepared for school warning in effect for the region
•Pretty good chance we will see some peaks on sunshine tomorrow
•Cold front that has protected us from the storm to the south, has also open the doors for arctic air that will make for a cold day on Monday
•Temps tomorrow may struggle to hit 20 in most locations and drop into the single digits and below zero tomorrow night
•One storm that requires watching for next week along with some moderation in temps by next weekend
A glance at the radar shows the main event of the storm moving in from the Ohio valley. One can also clearly make out the boundary this storm is riding across and the reason for the southerly track. It was always the position of this boundary that held the key to where the snow would fall tonight into tomorrow. Based on the most current radar and short range forecast model data, it is safe to say we will sit the sideline for this system. The only zones that may see some snow would be confined to southern most parts where even the likelihood of more than an inch of accumulation is of low probability.
You can clearly see from this simulated radar image for tomorrow morning off the HRRR Model when compared to the above current radar that the moisture will never make it much further north than it current axis. You can also when comparing the two, see the clear position of the frontal boundary that caused so many forecasts to keep sliding south and ultimately be very much overstated for most.
With that said, we can’t rule out some morning snow showers across the most southern parts of out region, with Westchester and Rockland have the best chances for this to occur. Even in the areas that see a period of snow showers on Monday morning, accumulations will unlikely reach an inch. While we may dodge a winter bullet in terms of the snowfall, we will not miss the cold air that is bleeding into the region in the wake of the same frontal boundary protecting us from the storm. Highs tomorrow will likely not surpass the upper teens to low twenties, with lows tomorrow night dropping to below zero and single digits across most of the region. Below are the forecasted High and Low temps for tomorrow on the NAM model.