A mostly cloudy start to the day across the region, which looks to persists through much of the day, maybe a few peaks of sun as we head into the late afternoon and evening but clouds will rule much of the day. We do on the other hand look to remain mostly dry today with the rain associated with yesterday’s warm front pushed off and out of our region. Highs today will be well above average with temps ranging between 45° and 50° in the Catskills, while valley areas will surge into the low and mid 50s (roughly 15° to 20° above average!).
The bigger story is the storm system that will develop across the southeastern US tomorrow. Models are forecasting a record “non tropical” low pressure (sub 980mb’s) system to gather strength across the south tomorrow with widespread severe weather for our southern friends. As this storm deepens and begins to cut off, it will help to dig out a negatively tilted trough, this will not only help the storm to continue to intensitfy, but it helps for some cold air to pour into our region, now the source of this cold air is unimpressive and the high pressure helping it to enter the region is weak and departing. So for snow lovers this is not the ideal or classic setup for a major snow producing Nor Easter.
By Sunday night the storm system is beginning to move NE towards are region, strong easterly winds will devlop as a strong gradient between the departing high pressure and low pressure system tightens up. Gusts over 60 MPH will batter the coastal regions and the continuous onshore flow will likely bring coastal flooding though multiple tide cycles. For our region the initial burst of precipitation looks to reach our region by Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures look unimpressive for most of the region so the onset precipitation type looks to be mostly rain, although a wintry mix is likely across the higher elevations above 1000′.
As the storm continues to near the region Monday we will have cold air filtering down from the north and pushing against the WAA (Warm Air Advection) pouring in off the ocean from the easterly winds ahead of the storm. Rain heavy at times with increasing winds will be the theme across the region, with gusts over 40-50 mph possible across the eastern faces slopes of the Catskills,Taconics and Berkshires. The wild card remains the final track and evolution of this storm, combined with the strength of the cold air that will be filtering into the region. While areas south of 84 look pretty cut and dry on a mostly rain scenario, we need to continue to monitor the northern and elevated areas for the frozen precipitation.
If the storm track is further offshore, the influence of the WAA becomes less, the colder air filtering down has less to overcome and heavier precipitation associated with the storm can help to cool down the atmosphere, especially later on Monday. A track closer to the coast may completely negate this process and keep any threats of frozen precip to the high elevations. Exactly how these small intricate details unfold will be unrealized until we get into Sunday and begin to nowcast this systems evolution. Would say at this point that there is a 40% chance that areas north of Kingston see a period of frozen precipitation. With about a 75% chance that locations above 1000 feet in the northern and western Catskills see accumulating snowfall.
No matter the solid or liquid state of the precipitation, it will be heavy and wind driven across the region. Be prepared for an extended period of enclimate weather that will extended from Sunday evening into overnight Monday. Some isolated flooding is a concern, power outages associated with some gusty winds and also some travel issues if colder air brings frozen precipitation to parts of the region. Please stay tuned as this is certainly a fluid situation and we will continue to hone and update the forecast as needed. Thanks.