Saturday: Stubborn clouds mixing with breaks of sunshine. High in the upper 30s. Winds Calm.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy skies. Low in the mid to upper 20s. Calm winds.
Sunday: Morning clouds… mixing with increasing sunshine during the afternoon. High in the upper 30s. Winds calm.
A very ‘ordinary’ day across the Hudson Valley on Friday. Poughkeepsie’s high was 38°, and it felt quite cold… mostly because the past week has been so mild. In fact… Friday marks the 10th straight day of temperatures at, or above normal. The month as a whole is beginning to approach 2 degrees above normal… and from the looks of things, that number should only increase.
A quiet weather weekend heading our way. High temps should be right near normal… and night time lows will be a few degrees warmer than the average… which is all the way down to 21° by this point in the season. The 5 day forecast has all the details… but really, the weather that everyone is interested in, occurs after the weekend is over.
The Week Ahead:
We discussed the coming week for the first time in the Friday Outlook, and we’re going to update it each day… so you’re able to plan your busy week around the coming weather.
Honestly, not much has changed in the last 24 hours… so you’ll understand if in the interest of time, we just recycle the graphics we created from yesterday. Things get somewhat unsettled beginning Monday night…
The storm off the coast looks likely to be a bit weaker than what you see above. It still looks to have the potential to throw some light moisture into the Hudson Valley overnight Monday into Tuesday… probably in the form of some wet snow flakes mixed with cold rain showers. We’re watching the potential for a slushy coating of snow prior to sunrise on Tuesday… but it’s still a very delicate situation in terms of the forecast details. But as a whole… no major changes to the ideas from yesterday. Then we move to Wednesday… aka Christmas Eve.
Considering the incredibly complex nature of how this storm will develop… it’s rather interesting how similar things look 24 hours later. The deep trough will dig into the Mississippi Valley, and a storm will intensify and move north/northeast into southern Canada. Ahead of it, a massive flow of warm, moist air will surge north. For the Hudson Valley… we might challenge the record high temperature of 58° on Wednesday, it’s all a matter of how much warmth can move north. Heavy rains and wind, continue to appear likely on Wednesday… but should clear out around midnight on Christmas morning.
In the wake of this storm… we’re looking at seasonal temperatures (around 40°), and blustery conditions… as the massive storm you see in the image above, begins to trek northward into Canada. This storm is so strong, that it will have the potential to trigger some major pattern changes… but we’ll have to wait and see.
For the record, I feel ridiculous every time I type “Billy’s Banter”, but I don’t have a better section title… and I always want to make it clear that I’m about to just “talk”. So with apologies to the ‘snow haters’ in the crowd, this next bit is targeted toward the snow lovers out there. The ‘White Christmas Dreamers’… the ‘Winter Weather Warriors’… whatever you might like to think of yourself as. I know it’s pretty deflating to find out that we won’t be seeing a White Christmas this year. Trust me… Alex and I aren’t dancing in the streets either. There was a time where a situation like the one we’ve got coming next week, would suck all the joy out of me. When you’re hoping for snow and winter weather… especially at Christmas, to see monster storms bring wind and rain for Christmas is like a shot in the gut (at least to a complete weather nut like me). But how about a few words of encouragement… lest you be feeling like winter is “over”.
First, lets state the obvious. Winter STARTS on Sunday. That’s right, it hasn’t even started yet… and we’re 3″ of snow above average in Poughkeepsie.
Second, if you think near record warm conditions and rain around Christmas is a sign the rest of the winter is going to be warm, consider this… The record high temperature for December 22nd in Poughkeepsie is 68°. When was that record set? Last year… 2013. Now… we all know how last winter turned out. The point being, winter can’t maintain the type of cold and snow that most of us snow lovers dream of. Many of the snowiest winters in history have experienced substantial warm spells and thaws… it gives the atmosphere a chance to reload, and that very well could be the case here. A week or so ago, I did a post about the potential to close out the month. The timeline has been pushed back just a few days, but the idea still holds. Things could get very interesting around the New Year. All we can do, is wait and see.
Have a great Saturday!