In the Friday Outlook we highlighted the potential for snow on Saturday, as a weak disturbance looks to spread an area of snow into the Northeast. The big question, was “location, location, location”. The location of the boundary on which the snow will develop… was uncertain. The GFS had the snow over the Hudson Valley, while all other data suggested it would be over New England. Well, our winter weary friends can breathe a sigh of relief…
The data is now in good agreement, that the snow (steady/accumulating) stays east of the NY/CT border. On the simulated radar (above), where you see blue on the map… are projected to experience a steady snow Saturday morning. The light gray over the Hudson Valley… is indicative of scattered flurries, possibly a snow shower or two… but the snow should not fall steady enough to accumulate in our area.
That said… Saturday is no picnic. A cold northerly breeze will blow, and that will keep temperatures pinned down in the 30s, with mostly cloudy skies, and the threat of snow flurries and snow showers. So yet another day that will feel more typical of January, instead of the final days of March. Outdoor plans will suffer once again… so make sure you bundle up, it’s going to be ugly.
Sunday looks a bit better… as sunshine will be abundant, but temps are still below average (mid 40s). Then on Monday… another ugly day. Clouds, scattered rain and snow showers, temps in the 40s. We’ve got the complete forecast details in the HVW 5 Day Forecast… please visit there for more details.
Long Range Outlook / Billy’s Banter
As many of you know, this section of the post is rather informal… and should not be taken as a forecast, but just as discussion about the long range potential. With that out of the way… Alex mentioned in the Friday morning facebook post, that we’re going to try and zero in on next weekend.
We have been watching a storm threat right around Easter. At over a week away, it’s really just a conversation piece at this point… but the models have been consistently showing a significant storm. Some of the data tracks the storm to our south and then up the coast… and with enough cold air in place to give us a nor’easter that could bring substantial snow.
The majority of the data, now has the storm track to our northwest, which would be a rain maker for the Hudson Valley. This time of year, everything has to come together perfectly for a snowstorm… but we do have the potential for a significant storm… so we’ll track it to see how it develops. Again… at this point, it’s just some pretty colors on a computer screen, so no need to panic. But we are tracking a possible weather system for Easter weekend.
There is another snow threat (less than 5 days away) that we’re tracking. It seems every year… that the computer models generate an April Fools Day snow event. So far, each one has turned out to make a fool of anyone who believed it. And as if on cue… here we go again…
The above image is the projected weather map for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning… and guess what Wednesday is?…. that’s right, April Fool’s Day. Personally… I would love for just ONE year, to get past April Fool’s Day without a snow threat. But it does not appear that my wish will come true this year. We’ll have to monitor the situation… as a compact area of relatively heavy moisture (2 to 4 inches of snow) is projected to drop out of Canada, and move very quickly. The track will be key, as you can see… it’s not a wide area of snow. But if the track is as shown above… we could be the fools on April 1st.
The Weather Peanut is calling… so that’s it for tonight. No rest for the weary… we’ll be tracking this situation as it develops.