Friday started off gray and cool… but finished in fine fashion, with breaks of sun and highs in the mid 70s (Poughkeepsie high of 75°). Now we head into the weekend… and the conversation turns to “rain potential”.
First off… Saturday looks pretty great to start off. Clouds should mix with sunshine, and temperatures should respond nicely, thanks to a southwest wind…
But as the afternoon progresses… for the first time in the month of May (which is already half over)… we’ve got a legitimate chance for widespread measurable rain.
The afternoon starts off rather quiet…
The majority of the region is quiet as of early afternoon… based on this simulated radar, which represents 2pm on Saturday. A few localized showers or thunderstorms will begin to develop, but those with outdoor plans, you should be OK at this point.
As late afternoon approaches, you can see the simulated radar shows thunderstorms beginning to pop up across the northern part of the HV. So by late afternoon, the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms should be increasing quickly. These thunderstorms could contain heavy downpours and gusty winds. The NWS Storm Prediction Center does have us in a very marginal (low) risk for severe weather… so be aware of the weather in your area as the day progresses.
By Saturday night (10pm)… widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms appear likely…
You can see that the simulated radar for Saturday night has the entire Hudson Valley seeing periods of light to moderate rain… associated with the scattered showers and thunderstorms.
How much rainfall??
The NAM computer model indicates that anywhere from 0.25″ to 1.0″ of rain is possible on the average by Sunday morning. Now… these showers and thunderstorms will be rather localized… meaning Newburgh could see 0.25″ and Poughkeepsie (just a few miles away) could see around 1.00″ (or vice versa). The important thing… is the widespread potential for measurable rainfall. The showers and storms should drift NW to SE during the evening… covering much of the HV. The big question, is how much falls in your location… and with a little luck… most of the HV will see 0.25″ to 0.50″ at least.
We’ll try to track this for you as the day unfolds… but feel free to use the Interactive Radar to track the situation (toggle on/off ‘advisories’ button if necessary). The 12 hour radar loop on the main page is also a great tool to use.
Otherwise… for more information, please check out the HVW 5 Day Forecast.
Have a great day… and cross your fingers for some much needed rainfall!!