* Link to the: Complete 5 Day Forecast *
A soggy day on tap for Saturday, as a rain system presses thru the Hudson Valley, and gives us a general 0.50″ to 1.00″ of rain, depending on your location. The cold air that gave us widespread areas of sleet and freezing rain Friday night… has pushed far enough north, that our only concern on Saturday is the rain. Expect the rain to taper off Saturday night, leaving us with a nice enough day on Sunday… except for the fact it will be noticeably colder.
The thought on everyone’s mind right now, is the storm potential for next week. A coastal storm is very likely, and by all accounts… it will be a significant storm. There are some HUGE uncertainties however… that will completely determine what kind of impacts are felt in the Hudson Valley. Lets look at two scenarios, first the GFS (American) computer model:
The storm develops off the coast of North Carolina, and then tracks northeast. Far enough off the coast, that most of the impacts stay east of the Hudson Valley. Two big things to notice under this scenario… are the fact that most of the moisture misses the Hudson Valley… and that the real “cold” air is north of the Hudson Valley. That means that most of what actually does fall from the sky, does so primarily in the form of rain across the Hudson Valley.
So the GFS model is a minor event for our area… what about the ECMWF (European) model?
The European model is desperately trying to create a historic event… just not so much for the Hudson Valley. It also starts the storm near North Carolina… but then tracks MUCH closer to the coast. Too close, in fact, for the Hudson Valley to see a major snow event. The map above shows the storm position, and the temperatures at cloud level. The image shows you where it’s cold enough to snow (blue) and where its warm enough to be a mostly rain event (green). You see that the Hudson Valley is primarily rain… while the Catskills would see snow (potentially a LOT of it).
This situation is a tough one, because the track means EVERYTHING to those in the Hudson Valley. Look at the map, if this storm tracks 50 to 100 miles further east… those blue colors are over the HV, and we could see a significant snowfall. Or the track could remain as is… or even be further inland, and we’ll see a soaking rain. It’s a big player in our weather regardless… but the details will take a day or two to iron out.
I hope you don’t mind the changes in format. We used to put the temperature map up daily… and might go back to that, but with the new 5 day forecast just rolled out, I want to make sure everyone knows there has been a change. One of the big things we’ve wanted, is to have the 5 day forecast be completely created by HVW, and not via a computer model algorithm. With the help of our awesome web team, we’ve got a very functional, 100% HVW customized, 5 day forecast, that will now match our daily updates. So if we’re talking about a nor’easter that may or may not hit… when you look at the 5 day forecast… you’ll see it addressed. Just one more thing that we think will help you plan your day better.
And on that note… it’s been a LONG week, I’m going to get some much deserved rest. I hope you had a good week, and hope your Saturday is great (even with the rain).