A beautiful day ahead of us for Saturday… one of the better days you’ll ever find for the final weekend of October…
A good deal of sunshine will mix with some increasing high clouds. Our flow will be increasing out of the Southeast today, in advance of our storm for Sunday. Expect winds gusting over 20mph Saturday afternoon. Highs should be beautiful… 5 to 10 degrees above average… in the upper 60s. A great day for outdoor activity.
Complex Coastal Storm for Sunday
Sunday is looking very stormy, as a strong trough digs into the eastern US, and a tropical disturbance gets caught along it. The result is a very difficult forecast, that looks stormy any way you slice it. Here’s the latest simulated radar from 6am Sunday thru Monday afternoon.
The exact timing will need to be fine tuned, just due to the complexity of this system. We’ve got a developing nor’easter along a strong trough… and if you notice the 2nd low pressure that appears well off shore, that is a tropical system that was in the Caribbean on Friday. How these features interact, will determine:
- The timing of the steadiest / heaviest rain
- The total amount of rainfall our area sees (1 to 2 inches… or 3 to 6 inches)
- The intensity of the wind gusts (20 to 35mph… or 30 to 50mph)
As it stands right now, it looks like scattered showers develop by sunrise on Sunday. The scattered showers should become more numerous toward mid day, and become mixed with some embedded heavy downpours. By mid to late afternoon… it looks like very heavy, if not tropical downpours are possible, and those could last into the night. Everything should pull north after midnight Sunday night, and we hopefully are drying out as the sun rises on Monday.
Latest rainfall totals…
This is a fair estimation of the rainfall totals across the region when all is said and done. Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain are likely, with some higher elevations possibly seeing up to 6 inches of rain. You’ll also notice, that if we had to shift the rainfall on this map east or west by 50 miles, it could mean widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain… or 3 to 5 inches of rain. So there is some uncertainty of where the worst conditions will be.
As it stands right now (Saturday morning), the worst conditions appear to be from NYC and the NY/CT on eastward. There, wind gusts could exceed 50mph, and down trees and powerlines are a real concern. If the storm were to push any further west, those damaging wind gusts could push into the Hudson Valley… so we’re watching closely. As of now, that doesn’t appear to be the case… but the potential exists, and we should be aware.
So for now… have a great Saturday, and enjoy the calm before the storm!