•An Alberta Clipper will impact the region from after midnight on Friday night through Saturday Afternoon
•Mostly light snow is expected across the region, with 3-6 possible across the Western and Central Catskills, to 1-3 inches in the Valley
•Another clipper will bring a period of light snow to the region on Sunday night into Monday, similar amounts are possible
•Cold air continues into the beginning of the week, with some of the coldest days occurring in the beginning of the week
•Pattern may support another storm system impacting the region next week as well
An Alberta Clipper will impact the region on Saturday with a light to moderate snowfall. It appears snow will break out from west to east across the region between midnight and predawn on Saturday. While the clipper will be short on its inventory of available moisture it will be a bit impressive in its strength. With air temps so cold on Sunday we will be able to pull off a decent liquid to snow ratio, at the moment most of the models are showing .10 of precipitation over the valley locations, which even at a 20-1 ratio only equates to about two inches. The Catskills manage to squeeze about a bit more moisture thanks to the terrain enhancement showing a 3-6 inch snowfall potential. I have circled the higher terrain of the Catskills and Taconics with black circles so you can see the impact the terrain can have on the amount of moisture that is squeezed from the atmosphere. Across the Hudson and Connecticut River valleys which are highlighted in red circles you can clearly see something knowing as the Shadow Effect or a Rain Shadow, and they are found on the lee side of mountains. As moist air comes in contact with the mountains it is forced upwards and when the air is forced up it cools and condenses causing all of the moisture out, once over the mountain and with little or no moisture left, it causes dryer conditions on the other side, aka the shadow effect. The arrows point to a key on the left hand sign of the model images, showing the color equivalent amount of liquid precipitation that is forecast to fall, below this model image is a snow ratio table that will show how much snow this can equate to based on air temperature. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid twenties on Saturday, so you can clearly see that the best forecast would be 1-3 inches across the lower elevations and 3-6 across the higher terrain, if some better dynamics are introduced to the storm, it is possible we could squeeze even higher amounts out.