After multiple days of unseasonable warmth and sunshine, clouds have advanced into the Hudson Valley.
We’ve got a deep trough digging into the Ohio Valley, that is cutting into the warm ridge of high pressure along the east coast. This clash of air masses will cause an intensifying southerly wind across our region, and along the boundary of the invading trough, we will see a line of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms develop. Here’s the futurecast radar for the 24 hour period from 12am Tuesday, thru 12am Wednesday:
You can see that the showers expand and become quite numerous by late morning Tuesday and continue until after sunset. The amount of moisture that falls could be rather substantial, because the frontal boundary will be slow to clear the Hudson Valley.
We’ll have the potential to see 1 to 2… possibly even 3 inches of rainfall in some parts of the region. It’s all a question of where the heavier bands of rain set up, and how long they persist. But for certain, some much needed… soaking rain is possible.
With the strong south winds that will develop, and the approaching strong cold front… we could see areas of severe weather occur…
The primary threat is damaging wind gusts (15% chance of occurring within 30 miles of your location), but with the changing wind direction from the approaching front, a bit of rotation could develop… and an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out (2% chance of occurring within 30 miles of your location). We’ll need to watch out for these powerful wind gusts that could develop in a heavier rain shower or thundershower.
In addition to the rain and severe weather threat… we expect a good deal of wind in general. When you have such a deep trough digging into a warm ridge of high pressure, the intense pressure gradient leads to potentially strong wind gusts out of the south.
We’ll need to monitor the winds as the storm unfolds… but the potential for 40mph+ wind gusts is on the table. These type of winds could cause some downed tree branches, and potentially a few isolated power outages. Something to consider, in addition to the rain.
We’ll be tracking things all the way through Tuesday. Stick with us for more updates as we get closer…