First batch of heavier rain has cleared the region, more rain should impact the fire location between 12-2pm. Models are suggesting it will be scattered in nature with imbedded heavy showers. Unfortunetly it’s hard to pinpoint where these showers will impact but addition rain is likely. So far in reporting .39″ of rain at the HVW office, this is the average across the region so far. Here is a look at the HRRR Sim radar for 1pm.
After this final batch moves through in the early afternoon, it looks like we will once again be dry, while the rain has helped, it was not the solution we were looking for.
930AM Update-Right on schedule, an area of moderate to heavy rain will be impacting the fire location within the next 15-25 mins. It will not be the longest duration event, but we should see atleast an 45-60 min period of decent rainfall. Here’s a look at the current radar.
840AM Update- Latest radar shows the batch of rain depicted on the 10AM HRRR Sim Radar starting to get its act together over NEPA. If all goes to plan the area of moisture circles in the latest radar should bring a good soaking rain to the fire location around 10am
An area of low pressure is currently moving along a stalled frontal boundary, this low pressure will spread rain into the region this morning. The initial bands of rainfall this morning had some dry air to contend with and were less than impressive with about .01″ of rainfall at my house. Heavier rainfall is occurring at at this hour across Orange County, with the wildfire areas on the Northern fringe and missing the bulk of this batch of rain as seen on the radar image below.
It does appear some rainfall will scrape the wildfire location over the next hour but not enough. According to the latest model guidance, a regional wide soaking rainfall should impact the region around 10am. Below is a simulated radar image from the HRRR model for that time period.
As you can see, it shows moderate to heavy rainfall occurring over most of the region by that hour. Question is will it be enough? In my opinion this will not cut it, the current radar shows a concern dry slot in the current radar over northern PA, with the bulk of our precip moving due east, this dry slot would impact the wildfire location. Take a look at the radar image below to see the concern.
What we need is this circled area to start filling in so we can track some of this rainfall over the wildfire location. In looking at some of the other guidance it is also less than impressive on total rainfall from this event. Below is the NAM model representation for total rainfall through today.
The promising thing about this image is that the NAM model wants to put the best streak of precip directly over southern Ulster, which is still only .5″-1″ of rainfall. My concern is that the nam is picking up on the rainfall currently falling across mostly Orange County and it may just be a touch to far north on the band of heavier rainfall (hoping not). Just wanna make sure we are proving the most realistic information possible for anyone who may be using HVW for info regarding this situation.
In the long term it also appears we don’t get another shot at significant rainfall till next week, with only a chance for lighter rain later this week. We will continue to monitor the data and keep an eye on the trends to keep everyone up to date on the rainfall. Latest updates put the losses at over 800 acres, with the fire gaining intensity, crews battling tough terrain and flames 40ft high, ashes have been falling as far away as Wappingers. The crews are also looking for donations of chainsaws that can be dropped off in Ellenville today.