3PM Saturday Update: Will be issuing an updated forecast in the next 60-90 mins, stay tuned.
11am Saturday Update: So far morning forecast guidance has been further south and colder, this is one of the wildcards we highlighted in our forecast. Still no changes but we will monitor this trend as it has the highest implications on the wildcard zones.
Saturday 7AM Morning Update: Winter Storm Watches are now in effect for all counties with the exception of Rockland and Westchester Counties.
The below forecast from last night is still our ongoing and most current forecast for the upcoming storm. We will have an updated forecast issued by this afternoon. As of now there are no changes to the below information.
Well, we have another complicated winter storm getting ready to impact our region. The long duration of unsettled weather, multiple days of travel impacts and a wide range of precipitation types and accumulation amounts across our region looks to keep the Red bulls flowing. Given the fact that this storms impacts span into Monday and Tuesday means we still do not have all of the details ironed out for the second half of this event, we believe tomorrow will shed more light onto the Sunday PM into Monday PM timeframe.
Below is a very simplified look into a very complicated few days, we have done our best to highlight timeframes, potential impacts and a few of the wild cards that may impact this forecast.
As Bill has now officially mentioned on Facebook, we are proud to announce that Bill has had his second child today! So while he has been relentlessly tracking and forecasting a seemingly endless parade of storms, he has also been preparing for the Weather Munchkin’s little sister who has already been dubbed the “Weather Peanut”. I will be doing my best over the next several days to take us through this storm, and believe me if I don’t change Bill’s login credentials he would probably jump in as well, but we will be giving him a well deserved break. Congrats to Bill, his wife, his daughter and their family on this exciting news, and thanks from me and from the entire HVW community for all of your efforts, sacrifices and energy you have brought to HVW this year! Thank You!
•This is not one storm, not a very strong storm, it will create light to significant snowfall across our region over an extended period of time
•Snow will fall over the course of 48-60 hours and be comprised of two parts
•Wave one will occur Sat PM though Sun AM, this wave will bring generally light accumulations to most of the region and may completely spare areas south of i84
•Wave two impacts the region from Sunday into Tuesday AM, this wave has the potential to bring moderate to heavy accumulations to parts of the region, areas from Westchester and Rockland Counties south may only be brushed by light accumulations.
•The higher peaks of the Catskills will likely see the most significant snowfall accumulations from this event
•Freezing rain and sleet may impact parts of the Lower Hudson Valley
•Light snow and snow showers develops sometime between late afternoon and early evening on Saturday and continues to fall at varying intensity during the overnight (will hone down start times during the day tomorrow)
•Snow may struggle to reach the southern most parts of our region, areas from i84 north will see anywhere from a coating to 3 inches from this first wave, hill towns may see up to four inches, with the higher terrain of the Catskills potentially seeing 5-8 inches by mid morning Sunday
•There may be a complete lull in the precipitation sometime Sunday morning before the second wave of low pressure sparks of a new round of precipitation
•Wave two look to impact the region from Sunday afternoon through atleast Monday night and possibly into predawn Tuesday
•Wave two will contain a bit more energy than wave one, it will be a bit slower and will track further South. This will bring moderate to occasionally heavy snow to our region
•This wave will bring an additional 4-8 inches of snow to most of the region with lesser amounts likely as you head into Westchester and Rockland Counties. The Catskills may see an additional 7-14 inches during this second wave as we expect the higher terrain to do quite well with this setup.
•This is a very long and drawn out snow event, it will not be remembered for one large snowfall but may still produce decent snowfall accumulations during its stay, the long duration while being a draw on snow removal equipment, workers and resources it should allow for roads to be maintained effectively. It will also create prolonged hazardous driving across the region
•The Monday morning commute looks to be the most impacted by this event, while Tuesday morning remains questionable as we need to iron out how long the snow will continue, either way residual effects are expected
•A period of freezing rain and sleet is possible for areas south of i84 and icing conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday Morning
•If the boundary that these low pressures are traveling across begins to sag further south than the forecast models are seeing it may shift the axis of heaviest snow further into our region
•If the cold air is being under forecasted by the forecast models we will see more snow across our southern most regions
•The opposite of the two above wildcards will also need to be monitored, a track further north would reduce snowfall accumulations across the region
Preliminary Snowfall Forecast for Saturday thru Tuesday-
Zones marked (wildcard) are the zones that have the most volatility in the forecast due to the wildcard factors listed above, there is a high bust potential in these zones. Keep in mind that any of the wildcard factors can raise or lower this snowfall forecast, it is for this reason that we have only issued it as a preliminary forecast. We will be obsessing over the data and observations throughout the night into tomorrow and will continue to tweak this forecast.
•Zones 1 and 2- 9″-18″
•Zones 5 and 6- 4″-8″+
•Zones 3 and 4- 5″-10″ (more north/less south) (watch for shadowing) (Taconics locally higher)
•Zone 7- 4″-8″ (sleet and freezing rain possible) -Wildcard-
•Zone 8 and 9- 2″-5″ (sleet and freezing rain possible) -Wildcard-