A sizeable storm will approach the Hudson Valley from the west on Sunday afternoon, and is expected to bring a significant winter storm to the Hudson Valley. Here are the preliminary timeline and snowfall accumulations, to be finalized during the day on Sunday.
Preliminary Storm Timeline
- Snow begins Sunday, between 6pm and 10pm from west to east.
- Snow could fall heavy at times (1 to 2 inches per hour) between 3am and 12pm Monday
- Snow could mix with sleet for a time during the morning, near and south of I-287.
- Snow tapers off between 4pm and 7pm Monday evening
Preliminary Storm Impacts
- Very cold arctic air, temperatures in the mid teens to low 20s
- Cold temperatures = fluffy powder snow
- Winds out of the north / northeast at 10 to 15mph, could cause some blowing and drifting
- Heavy snowfall rate during the morning could greatly reduce visibility
- Cold temperatures, snow will stick to ALL surfaces, roads likely snow covered and icy
- Snow likely to start during the Superbowl, could be more people on the roads than on a typical Sunday night. Plan accordingly, and take it slow.
- Monday Morning commute likely to be significantly impacted by this winter storm, expect delays and cancellations.
Preliminary Snow Accumulation
- Zones 8 & 9: 7 to 12 inches (less to the south, where mixing with sleet is most likely)
- Zones 1 – 7: 10 to 15 inches
A different kind of significant winter storm is taking aim on the Hudson Valley, and it could spread over 10 inches of snow in much of the Hudson Valley. It looks poised to start during the Superbowl… and end on Groundhog’s Day… hence Super-Hog-Bowl-Day Storm.
This storm is not a nor’easter (or coastal storm)… making it different than the Fizz’ard of 2015. This storm will track from west to east… starting in the Midwest, moving thru the Ohio Valley, and then off the coast of NJ. Generally, a storm track like this… is easier to forecast. So, while the details will be fine tuned over the next 24 hours… a major surprise (like the storm completely missing us), is extremely unlikely.
Some things that could still impact the forecast would be a shift in the storm track further north. This would allow warmer air to infiltrate all levels of the atmosphere and cause sleet and freezing rain to push into our region which could reduce snow totals, especially across southern sections. We will be monitoring the real time data and observations to narrow this down.
In advance of this storm, a cold high pressure in Canada will push arctic air into the Hudson Valley. That means as the flakes begin to fly Sunday night… we’ll see temperatures in the low 20s, falling into the teens overnight. The very cold air should give us a fluffy, powdery snow. That means easier to shovel and plow… but also could help to increase snow totals. However, the colder temperatures present some problems for the forecast:
- Normally, 1 inch of liquid water translates into 10 inches of snow.
- However, with the colder temperatures, that ratio of 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid… can become 15 or 20 inches of snow for every inch of liquid.
- The data is suggesting we see anywhere between 0.75″ and 1.25″ of liquid across the Hudson Valley.
Exactly how the temperature profile sets up, and exactly how much moisture reaches into the Hudson Valley… will go a very long way in determining snow accumulations. Below is the GFS model’s snowfall projection for this storm.
This snowfall map assumes a 10 to 1 ratio (snow to liquid ratio). As discussed above, snowfall ratios could be 15 to 1… possibly even 20 to 1 in some places. So that’s why we’re projecting snowfall slightly higher than what you see on this computer model.
Behind this storm… Monday night… temperatures will plummet to very uncomfortable (if not dangerous) levels. So with this system, plan for significant snow… followed by harsh, bitter cold.
We’ll have more updates on this event over the next 24 hours… and we’ll have a finalized storm forecast on Sunday afternoon. If anything changes between then, we’ll pass that information along to you.