•Precip beginning to enter our western zones at this hour
•Surface temps have been slow to rise, thanks to deep snow pack
•Temps may drop a few more degrees at the onset of the precipitation
•Increasing likelihood for a period of moderate to heavy snow/freezing rain
•This may leave some roads across the region snow covered or icy for the afternoon, need to monitor timing of school dismissals
•Southern most parts of the region may see all rain and dodge the ice and snow
•If you have any travel across the region between 10AM-3PM, please be aware that you may encounter slick travel
•Remember that freezing rain looks like rain, but freezes when it comes in contact with surfaces 32 degrees or less
A look at the current temps across the region, and the most recent short range models continues to raise concerns for a slippery afternoon. It appears precipitation will reach the region from west to east starting around 9-10AM, at this time most of the region will still be below freezing. This is a classic signature for a period of freezing rain, also some northern parts of the region may actually see a period of snow, the short range models are indicating that precipitation may fall with enough intensity that it may help to cool the atmosphere enough to support a longer duration of snow. This combination of snow and freezing rain may cause some very slick roads just in time for school dismissal. With that said this is something that needs to be monitored closely, as we stated in the morning update it is a race between the arrival of the moisture and the increasing temps, at the moment temps are slowly rising, but with deep snow pack in place the surface temps may struggle to break freezing. The areas of most concern are from the lower Hudson Valley and points north, as we expect the southern most zones to break freezing sooner, if you have travel across the region this afternoon please stay tuned for updates on this incoming precipitation.
Here is a look at the current radar, as you can see mixed precipitation is about to push into our western zones
Now a look at the current surface temps shows that we are struggling to warm across the region, and the onset of this precipitation and its intensity may actually cause temps to drop a few degrees as well.
Now here is a look at the most recent run of the HRRR short range model which is picking up on the potential for the precipitation intensity to lower the temps across the region enough to support a period of moderate to heavy snow, what the model isn’t depicting is that to the south of this snow zone we will need to watch for a period of freezing rain. As long as your surface temp is 32 or less or even the surfaces themselves are 32 or less, any rain that falls will freeze on contact.