•Freezing rain advisories in effect for Delaware and Sullivan Counties
•Not as cold tonight with lows between 12-15 degrees, clouds increase after midnight
•Precipitation breaks out from south to north across the region between 10am-1pm on Sunday
•Precipitation starts out as a brief period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing to rain by the afternoon
•Still advising the potential for isolated pockets of freezing rain to persist a bit longer in areas that are outside of the counties under advisories, especially sheltered valleys in the Catskills; this may lead to isolated areas of slick travel
•A brief period of light snow is possible Monday morning as the arctic front pulls colder air back into the region as the storm pulls away. A dusting of snow is possible, but more likely in the higher terrains
•Temps will drop from the mid 30’s and low 40’s early on Monday, then into single digits to near zero by Monday night
•Tuesday may again bring us the coldest high temps in years only reaching between 3-7 degrees.
•A brief return to cold temps early in the week, followed by a chance of snow later in the week
•Warm-up looks likely from about the 10th of January to around the 16th of January. A this time, temps will return to average or slightly above
Let’s discuss the roller coaster of a forecast we have for the next 24-36 hours. As of this evening, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a freezing rain advisories for Sullivan and Delaware County. We mentioned in last nights update that we saw the potential for at least a minimal icing threat for the region, and this afternoon the NWS also acknowledged that threat, but only across those counties under advisory. Data continues to show that the lower elevations of the region will warm above freezing quickly, and rain will fall for the majority of the forecast area. We will continue to highlight the threat for a brief period of freezing rain tomorrow, and a few longer lasting pockets of freezing rain in some of the sheltered valleys. These may cause some travel issues.
This evening’s overnight temps will not be as cold as last night. Clear skies in the early night, along with fresh snow pack should allow for temps to drop down into the low teens. High clouds will begin to move into the region late in the overnight ahead of the approaching storm. With overcast skies by morning, precipitation in the form of a brief period of snow and sleet should occur from south to north across the region between 10am and 1pm. As temps aloft begin to quickly erode the cold air from the upper levels, the precipitation will change over to freezing rain. If the forecast models are correct, this period of freezing rain should be very brief and plain rain will become the perdominate precipitation type with little if any icing expected across most of the region.
We will continue to stress that some locations outside of Delaware and Sullivan counties may experience a longer duration of freezing rain. This may lead to isolated pockets of poor travel. By the mid and late afternoon the cold air should be eradicated even at the surface, and all locations will see a period of rain.
Overnight Sunday temps may drop enough to cause some sleet and snow to mix back in with the rain, especially across some of the higher elevations. The storm will begin to pull away to our NW during the overnight, dragging an arctic front through the region by late morning on Monday. Remaining precipitation will end as a brief period of snow with a dusting possible in the valley locations. Temps on Monday will be the warmest in the morning and crash 30-40 degrees in 12-18 hours, bringing lows on Monday night back to the single digits.
Looking ahead, it appears the region will experience a warm-up that may last long enough to enjoy! We may possibly have another shot at light snow on Thursday. We will then start a gradual warm-up, likely returning to above average temps through mid month. What awaits us after this moderate January thaw is to be determined, but it will be well deserved after what has been a chilly start to winter so far.
We will have more about the potential snow event for next week and the warm-up to follow in tomorrow’s update. For now, we will get through tomorrows mixed bag of precipitation first.