•Sunday will represent our last day of warmer temps before the return to colder weather
•Chance of showers across the region on Sunday between 8AM-2PM, snow showers possible across the higher terrain
•A period of light snow is possible Sunday night into early Monday between 11PM-2AM
•Monday will begin our stretch of colder temps with highs in the 30’s slowly sliding into the 20’s by mid to late week
•Second chance of snow occurs around mid week when a storm system passes to our southeast, final track will determine a light snow or moderate/heavy snow for the region
•By the end of the week low temps may return to single digits and below zero
Our stretch of warmer temps is coming to a quick end after this weekend, temps will already feel colder by Monday and will continue to tumble over the coming days. We have been graced by about a five day period of above normal temps that have helped to defrost the HV a bit while taking a significant bite out of our deep snowpack. Unfortunately for anyone weary of the winter of 2013-14, cold air that will rival early January is getting set to turn our moisture laden snowpack into a frozen tundra with more opportunities to replace any of the snow pack lost over the previous days. Lets take a look at the current temps across the country at 850MB (5000ft), this is called the 850MB temperature anomalies it depicts in colors the above, or below climate average for the temps at 5000 feet in celsius. You can clearly see on the image below that we are experience above average temps across the region, also notice the “Uh O” to our northwest, as that is the piece of arctic air that is getting ready to move into the region.
Next is the same model showing the 850MB temp anomaly for this time next weekend, watch how the pool of cold air has plunged into the region, and brought our temps to far below average levels for late February.
This may bring record cold temps into the region by next weekend into early next week, and will be a rude awakening for everyone taking in the upper 40’s and low 50’s we saw on Saturday. Just to give an example of the low temps we will be dealing with during the upcoming week, here is a model forecast for low temps on Thursday.
Now that we know the cold air is returning, the remaining question on everyones mind is when is the next chance for snowfall across the region? As you read above, there is a chance for some very light snow Sunday into Monday, but it currently has low probability and appears to be very light, if anything. The next system of interest is a low pressure that is currently forecast to pass to our south and east on Wednesday, and potentially graze the region with some light snow. Reason why we need to continue to monitor this storm, is that any fluctuation in the eventual track of this storm can have implications on our forecast. As currently modeled this storm would cause a period of light snow, and nothing more (black arrow track) if the storm were to only track a few hundred miles closer to the coast (red arrow) it could spread a moderate to heavy snow across the region. Since there is still lots of uncertainty with the ultimate track of this storm, it cannot be written of completely and will continue to be monitored.
So to answer the many questions we have received about a major storm next week, the answer is that anyone saying so is purely hyping, and speculating. We hope you all know by now that if there we any legitimate threat of a major storm to our region, one with at least a semi probable chance of occurring, that you would hear it here first. Does that mean that the Wednesday storm can’t turn out to be more? Absolutely not, it simply means that at this point the probability isn’t worth getting anyone in an uproar and making people by an unnecessary amount of milk and bread.