Hope everyone had a safe, fairly warm, sugar filled halloween! As we inch closer to our official winter season, we spend pretty much everyday looking a trends on a global scale so we can continue to hone our understanding on how this season, and winter seasons in the future will evolve. So far there are no changes to our long range outlook, and we are eyeing the mid month period for a significant pattern change that may bring winter early to our region. These next 7-10 days as we have been mentioning will be a bit of a roller coaster with a few days of above normal temps, but for the most part our region will be one of the cooler spots across the country. A small trough will linger across our region thanks to some blocking across the north atlantic, a feature known has NAO, which will also play into our winter season.
Getting back to today, a frosty start across the region, clear skies and light winds were able to maximize radiational cooling and bring temps across the region into the 20’s and 30’s, lets take a look at 7am temps.
Thats why its Novemberrrrrr, but it won’t last to long, as mentioned in yesterdays forecast, high pressure to our north is pushing east and out into the Atlantic as low pressure approached from our west. This combination will switch our flow out of the south and bring us a brief period of above average temps for mid week. The warm up isn’t all that impressive, and a cold front knocks us back to reality by the weekend. You can clearly see the effects of our stubborn trough protecting us from a much more impressive warm up on this model forecast temps for Thursday, notice the tight temperature gradient across the region with areas to the SE much warmer than areas to the N and NE.
By Thursday, the aforementioned cold front and low pressure will begin to push clouds into the region and eventually a chance of isolated showers by Thursday evening. The best chance for rain comes Friday with the passage of the cold front, this will usher much colder air back into the region with the rain possibly ending as snow across the Catskills. Reality returns for the weekend with 30’s and 40’s likely. We will have some more looks at the long range and more updates on our cold front in our next update, everyone have a great day and enjoy our brief return of above average temps.