No changes to the storm forecast as of now. After the morning computer model runs complete on Monday, we will finalize the forecast and share the details both here and on the Facebook page. Until then, for complete forecast details, please check out the Major Nor’easter : Preliminary Forecast… or also the HVW 5 Day Forecast.
Since we’ve spent the last 36 hours going through each run of the computer models with you, let’s summarize the current situation by comparing the European model with the GFS computer model. Both images look at the pressure, and 850mb temperature (cloud level temperature)… for Tuesday morning at 7am.
If you look at these 2 images… there is one stark difference. The location of the Low pressure. At the same moment in time, the GFS model is projecting the storm center to be roughly 100 miles east of the location where the European model is projecting. Add in the fact that the GFS is also projecting the storm to be slightly weaker (4mb) than the European… and you have the recipe for a difference between 10 inches… and over 24 inches of snow.
The GFS… along with the Canadian and NAM models, have waivered back and forth… east and west… over the past 36 hours.
The European… while a lone wolf… has been incredibly consistent in it’s solution and storm track over the same period.
When you look at the data together… it’s a matter of consensus versus credibility. The GFS and company agree on some variation of a more easterly track (consensus). While the European model is the reigning champion of forecast models, consistently out performing each of it’s counterparts (credibility).
We’ll see on Monday, which is more valuable…